This article explains who has beaten Tom Aspinall and why those results matter for ufc predictions today. It provides a short, sourced list of losses and a practical framework you can apply when weighting past defeats in fast models. The goal is to give sports fans, handicappers and modelers a clear, evidence-backed way to verify the three professional losses and to judge how much predictive weight each should carry in a forecast. Follow the checklist and sources below before you finalize any prediction.

Tom Aspinall has three professional losses: Stuart Austin, Lukasz Parobiec (DQ), and Curtis Blaydes.

The lone UFC loss to Curtis Blaydes is recorded as a first-round TKO after a knee injury and is often treated as a low-signal event for predictions.

Aspinall won the interim heavyweight title at UFC 295, which should update model priors when forecasting his fights.

ufc predictions today: quick answer, who has beaten Tom Aspinall?

TL;DR: Tom Aspinall has three professional losses, to Stuart Austin, Lukasz Parobiec by disqualification, and Curtis Blaydes, with the Blaydes result recorded as a first-round TKO after an early knee injury; major consolidated records list Aspinall at 15-3 (1 NC) as of 2026, which is the baseline most predictors use for quick checks Wikipedia.

One-sentence summary for predictors: treat the Blaydes stoppage as a low-signal, injury-linked event when you run fast models, and rely more on Aspinall's recent elite wins to update priors for current matchups.

Quick record check to confirm three losses in under a minute

Stuart Austin
Lukasz Parobiec
Curtis Blaydes

Cross-check at least two databases

Why Aspinall's loss history matters for ufc predictions today

When building short-term forecasts, a loss is not a single scalar you can apply equally across opponents; the cause, timing and the opponent's quality all shift how much weight the event should carry in a model. For example, an injury stoppage often has lower predictive value than a technical or tactical defeat because it may not reflect an underlying performance gap.

In Aspinall's case the July 23, 2022 fight in London ended after a very early knee-injury sequence, which contemporary reporting framed as a freak incident rather than an extended competitive dominance by the opponent BBC Sport report on the Blaydes fight. Models that automatically penalize any loss the same way will overreact to that outcome unless they flag injury stoppages separately.

ufc predictions today: Tom Aspinall's official fight record and who beat him

Consolidated databases list Tom Aspinall's professional record as 15-3 with one no contest as of 2026, and they consistently identify the same three fighters as his professional defeats; this consolidated view is the usual starting point for baseline probability tables UFCStats.

Itemized losses, with event context: Stuart Austin at BAMMA 21 (2015) is listed as a professional defeat in early records; Lukasz Parobiec at BAMMA 25 (2016) appears as a disqualification loss in consolidated fight logs; and Curtis Blaydes at UFC Fight Night London on July 23, 2022 is recorded as a first-round TKO due to a knee injury. For quick verification, Sherdog and ESPN maintain the same opponent list and event labels for these results Sherdog record.

Stuart Austin is the earliest listed opponent to secure a decision or finish over Aspinall in BAMMA competition, while the Parobiec result is flagged in archives as a disqualification rather than a conventional finish; Sherdog and archived event pages are the best places to confirm method of victory and any available round timing Wikipedia.

When you need round and time details for modeling, cross-check UFC.com and Sherdog entries first, then use ESPN or consolidated recaps to resolve small discrepancies in timing or fight notes, and the Funded Plays evaluations guide ESPN fight results.

Verify records and event reports before you finalize a pick

Check the Notes and sources section below to open the original event reports and official profiles before you lock a prediction.

Open source checklist

Deep dive: the Blaydes fight, injury context and why it matters

The Blaydes stoppage is documented as occurring very early in Round 1 after a knee-related sequence, and event reporting described the ending as stemming from the injury rather than a sustained competitive advantage by the winner, which reduces the loss's signal for many forecasting approaches BBC Sport report on the Blaydes fight.

Minimalist composite of three MMA headshots Austin Parobiec Blaydes with simple labels and event names on dark Funded Plays branded background ufc predictions today

Practically, when a fight ends quickly because of an acute injury, modelers should separate structural skill-based features from one-off physical incidents. Injury stoppages often produce noisy residuals in data-driven models unless you explicitly flag them and either down-weight or exclude them from short-window performance metrics.

For users building probability tables, one approach is to mark injury stoppages and then apply a lower effective weight in the last-N fights metric, especially if the fighter has since posted strong results at the same level of competition.

Aspinall's early-career defeats: what BAMMA results tell us

Both pre-UFC defeats occurred in BAMMA events: Stuart Austin defeated Aspinall at BAMMA 21 in 2015, and Lukasz Parobiec is recorded as the opponent at BAMMA 25 in 2016 where the result is a disqualification; these early losses belong in the developmental category when you evaluate long-term progression Sherdog record.

Who has beaten Tom Aspinall and how should those losses affect current predictions?

Tom Aspinall has three professional losses: Stuart Austin, Lukasz Parobiec (DQ), and Curtis Blaydes. The Blaydes result is recorded as a first-round TKO due to a knee injury and is generally lower-signal for short-term forecasting; update priors with Aspinall's later elite wins while checking matchup specifics.

Early-career setbacks frequently reflect experience gaps, conditioning, or isolated rule infractions rather than a permanent skill ceiling, so many modelers treat BAMMA-era results as lower-signal for elite-level probability forecasts.

For a quick check, use consolidated archives to confirm event dates and the result type, because DQ outcomes and overturned results can appear differently across databases.

How to weigh a loss when making ufc predictions today

Start with these modifiers when scoring a past loss: cause of loss (injury, disqualification, finish), opponent quality at the time, time elapsed since the loss, and subsequent results. Each modifier should change a loss' effective weight rather than flip a binary interpretation.

For example, the Blaydes injury loss should receive a lower weight because it is an injury stoppage and because Aspinall later captured the interim title at UFC 295, which signals successful recovery and elite-level performance UFC 295.

Here is a short qualitative checklist you can apply pre-match: is the loss caused by injury or DQ, did the opponent have a top-tier ranking at that time, has the fighter shown consistent wins since, and how long has it been since the loss. Scoring each item produces a simple composite that is easy to fold into model priors.

Decision criteria: when to treat a past loss as meaningful

Use straightforward threshold rules: mark a past loss as high-impact if it is a recent loss within 12 months, if it is one of several similar defeats indicating a pattern, or if it came against a clearly higher-ranked opponent and involved sustained dominance.

Red flags that should downgrade expectations include repeated losses of the same type, clear declines in physical markers like reaction speed or takedown defense over multiple fights, and medical or commission reports that suggest lingering issues. For verification, consult official profiles and consolidated fight logs on UFC.com, Sherdog and ESPN to confirm the type and timing of the loss UFC athlete profile.

Combine qualitative flags with simple quantitative checks: recent form trend, opponent strength index, and time-since-loss decay functions. If more than one red flag appears, shift model priors more substantially and stress-test predictions against alternate scenarios.

Data and sources to check before finalizing ufc predictions today

Authoritative sources to verify fight outcomes, timing and injury context are UFC.com for official records, Sherdog for detailed fight logs, ESPN for consolidated recaps, and contemporaneous event reporting such as the BBC for injury context. Use at least two of these when confirming a disputed detail ESPN fight history, and see the Funded Plays homepage.

When possible, add fight footage and official post-fight medical notes to your verification process because those materials resolve whether a stoppage was injury related or performance based.

Funded Plays Challenges

Common mistakes predictors make when using fighter loss history

Typical errors include overweighting a single isolated loss, treating disqualifications and injury stoppages as equivalent to technical or dominant defeats, and ignoring recency and opponent quality. These mistakes lead to overfitting and unstable forecasts.

Another common pitfall is failing to consider sample size; a fighter with few elite-level bouts will naturally produce more variance, so adjust confidence intervals accordingly rather than forcing a narrow probability estimate.

Scenario examples: applying the framework to upcoming heavyweight matchups

Example A, opponent similar to Blaydes: if the upcoming opponent uses heavy wrestling and top control similar to Blaydes, check whether Aspinall's recovery addressed the specific exposure that led to the 2022 stoppage. Because that loss was injury related and Aspinall won the interim title later, many modelers would down-weight the 2022 result while focusing on recent exchanges and takedown defense metrics.

Example B, opponent who exploits a physical weakness: if the opponent targets a documented physical weakness not linked to the 2022 injury, then the Blaydes result is less relevant and you should prioritize stylistic matchup data and recent fight film over the isolated injury stoppage reference Wikipedia consolidated profile.

For each scenario, list evidence that increases or decreases Aspinall's win probability: increases include recent elite wins and demonstrated recovery, decreases include short-term medical flags or a consistent pattern of the same type of defeat. Translate those signals into a simple probability adjustment rather than a categorical overturn.

How recent form and titles, for example UFC 295, change forecast outlook

Major wins such as winning the interim heavyweight title at UFC 295 materially change priors because they indicate the fighter can succeed at the elite level after setbacks; this is a clear signal to increase baseline win probabilities for future matchups against similar opposition UFC 295.

However, titles do not eliminate the need to examine matchup-specific variables. A title win shifts the prior but you should still check stylistic compatibility, recent activity, and any new medical or conditioning notes before finalizing a prediction.

A practical prediction checklist for Tom Aspinall fights

Quick pre-fight verification steps: verify official record on UFC.com, review last three to five fights for opponent quality, check for current medical or commission notes, watch recent fight footage for stylistic clues, and confirm weigh-in and conditioning updates. For related workflows see the Funded Plays blog.

Key matchup questions: does the opponent present the same problems that led to past losses, has Aspinall shown durable recovery since the last loss, and are there any new external factors like short notice or travel that could alter performance. Remember to treat the 2022 Blaydes injury loss as lower-signal if Aspinall has produced consistent elite wins since then.

Conclusion: how to use Aspinall's loss history in your ufc predictions today

In short, the three fighters who beat Tom Aspinall are Stuart Austin, Lukasz Parobiec by disqualification, and Curtis Blaydes, with the Blaydes result recorded as an early TKO tied to a knee injury; these are the facts most models start from and verify on official sources BBC Sport report on the Blaydes fight.

Recommendation: downgrade the predictive weight of that injury stoppage given Aspinall's later elite wins, including the interim title, but always verify matchup specifics, recent form and any medical flags before you finalize a forecast.

Notes and sources: where to verify details mentioned in this article

Primary references used here include the UFC athlete profile for official confirmation of record and profiles, BBC Sport for contemporaneous event reporting on the Blaydes stoppage, Wikipedia for a consolidated timeline, Sherdog for archived event logs, ESPN for fight recaps, and the UFC 295 page for title context UFC athlete profile.

For round and time verification always cross-check at least two independent sources and, when available, review event footage or official commission notes to resolve discrepancies before you fold that detail into a model.

Who are the fighters that have beaten Tom Aspinall?

The three professional fighters listed as beating Tom Aspinall are Stuart Austin, Lukasz Parobiec (DQ), and Curtis Blaydes.

Was the loss to Curtis Blaydes a typical competitive defeat?

No, the Blaydes fight is recorded as a first-round TKO tied to a knee injury, and contemporaneous reporting described it as an early injury-related stoppage.

How should I treat the 2022 Blaydes result when making predictions?

Treat it as lower-signal in most short-term models, especially if the fighter has shown elite-level wins since then, but always verify matchup and medical details.

Use the decision checklist and source links in the Notes and sources section as your verification routine before placing a prediction. No past result guarantees future outcomes; treat historical data as one input in a broader evaluation. If you need a quick refresher, confirm the record on at least two authoritative databases and review recent fight footage to resolve any matchup-specific concerns.