If you are new to betting on mixed martial arts or want a clear refresher, the moneyline is the simplest way to back a fighter. This guide explains what a UFC moneyline bet means, how American odds work for favorites and underdogs, and how to translate odds into payout and implied probability. You will also learn how draws are treated under MMA rules, what operator house rules commonly do with pushes and no contests, and practical scenarios that walk through favorite wins, underdog upsets, and draw outcomes so you can check your own math before wagering.

A UFC moneyline is a straight wager on which fighter wins, shown in American odds.

Negative odds show the amount you must risk to win 100, positive odds show the profit on a 100 stake.

Draws are valid under Unified Rules and can change settlement depending on two way or three way markets.

What a UFC moneyline bet is

Simple definition

A moneyline bet is simply a wager on which fighter wins the bout, shown in American odds for U.S. markets. In practice, that means you pick the competitor you expect to finish the fight and a winning selection is paid according to the listed odds, while a losing selection returns no payout. This plain definition captures the basic purpose of a UFC moneyline and helps clarify when to use it versus other bet types. Investopedia moneyline guide

Minimalist Funded Plays infographic showing -150 and +180 odds with arrows calculating stake profit and total return on dark branded background ufc moneyline

Unlike a spread that handicaps margin of victory or a total that tallies rounds or points, the moneyline is binary in intent: who wins. For fans who simply want to back a fighter without predicting the margin or rounds, the moneyline is the straightforward choice. Because favorites and underdogs are expressed as negative and positive American odds, the selection you make directly determines the payout rate rather than any points adjustment.

When comparing bet types, choose a moneyline if you believe one fighter will win outright, choose a spread if you care about the margin, and choose totals if you want to bet on how long or how active the fight will be.

How American moneyline odds work with payout examples

Reading negative odds like -150

American odds use negative numbers to show favorites and the amount you must risk to win 100. For example, odds shown as -150 mean you must risk 150 to win 100, which is the standard convention used across U.S. educational sources. This convention helps bettors quickly compare the cost of backing a favorite versus an underdog. Investopedia moneyline guide

Positive American odds show how much you would win on a 100 stake. So +180 means a 100 stake would win 180 in profit, and the total return would be the 100 stake plus 180 profit for a 280 total. This is the mirror convention to negative odds and is commonly used when evaluating underdog payouts. AceOdds odds converter

Example 1, favorite: If the line is -150 and you wager 150, your profit is 100, so the total return is 250 (your 150 stake plus 100 profit). Write the calculation as: stake 150 returns 150 + 100 = 250. This shows how negative odds translate to the stake required and the net gain if the favorite wins. Investopedia moneyline guide

Example 2, underdog: If the line is +180 and you wager 100, your profit is 180 and your total return is 280. Written as stake 100 returns 100 + 180 = 280. Keeping the math in short equations like this helps avoid miscalculations before placing a wager. ESPN odds explainer

Practice payout math before you bet

Take a moment to calculate one quick payout: pick any listed American odds and convert it into the stake and total return to check you understand the math before moving on.

Calculate payout now

Converting moneyline odds to implied probability

Formula for negative American odds

For negative American odds the implied probability formula is: implied probability = -odds / (-odds + 100). Using -150 as an example, the calculation is 150 / (150 + 100) = 150/250 = 0.60, which implies a 60 percent market probability. This conversion helps clarify what the market is pricing into the line. Implied probability calculator

Formula for positive American odds

For positive American odds the formula is: implied probability = 100 / (odds + 100). For +180, that is 100 / (180 + 100) = 100/280 = 0.357, or about 35.7 percent. Interpreting this percent explains how likely the market thinks the underdog is to win. Investopedia moneyline guide

Worked conversion examples

Worked example A: -200 converts to 200/(200+100) = 200/300 = 0.6667, or about 66.7 percent implied probability. This means the market prices the favorite as roughly two thirds likely to win. Investopedia moneyline guide

Minimalist 2D vector side by side showing a scorecard indicating a draw and a moneyline ticket indicating a cashed bet illustrating push versus cashing draw ufc moneyline

Worked example B: +250 converts to 100/(250+100) = 100/350 = 0.2857, or about 28.6 percent implied probability. Comparing implied probability and your own estimate is how bettors look for value.

Draws, two way versus three way moneylines, and MMA rules that matter

Unified Rules and draw outcomes

Under the Unified Rules of Mixed Martial Arts, a draw is a valid official outcome, and that affects how moneyline bets are graded when a bout has an even score or otherwise is declared a draw. Different grading conventions follow from that core rule, so understanding the governing outcome definitions is important before you place moneyline wagers on UFC fights. Unified Rules of MMA

Two way moneyline: push rules

Many operators offer a two way moneyline that lists only the two fighters and does not include a separate draw option; in those markets a draw is often treated as a push or void depending on the operator house rules, which can result in stakes being returned rather than paid. Bettors who choose two way moneylines should confirm the operator's settlement policy since a draw can change the expected outcome for the wager. Massachusetts sports wagering catalog

What is a UFC moneyline bet and how do I interpret the odds?

A UFC moneyline bet is a wager on which fighter will win the bout, displayed in American odds that show favorites with negative numbers and underdogs with positive numbers; convert those odds to implied probability or payout using standard formulas to understand market expectations.

Three way moneyline: draw as a separate selection

Some operators offer a three way moneyline that explicitly lists win, lose, and draw as separate outcomes so the draw will cash only for that selection and not cause a push on the other lines. If a three way market is available and you want exposure to the draw, use that market rather than assuming a two way selection will account for draws. ESPN odds explainer

Settlement, pushes and operator house rules you must check

What to check in the operator rules

Before placing a moneyline wager, read the sportsbook or operator house rules for settlement specifics in your jurisdiction, including how draws, no contests, and official result changes are handled. Operator rules vary and can alter whether a stake is returned or a selection is graded as losing in particular situations. Checking posted house rules reduces surprises when a bout result is changed after the fact. Ohio Casino Control Commission FAQ

Common settlement scenarios: no contest, cancellation, result changes

Typical settlement scenarios that affect moneyline wagers include no contest rulings, card or bout cancellations, official result changes after review, and draws that may convert into pushes in two way markets. Each case has standard operator responses but the exact treatment depends on the posted rules, so confirm those rules ahead of time. Massachusetts sports wagering catalog

Timing and documentation

Settlement timing and whether a result is final are also governed by operator practices. Some operators wait for official commission approval or a defined post-fight review window before settling disputed outcomes. Keep documentation or screenshots of the posted rules and the market you wagered on in case you need to reference settlement language later.

Practical examples and worked scenarios

Favorite wins: payout walkthrough

Scenario 1, favorite wins: Line shows Fighter A at -180 and Fighter B at +150. If you wager 180 on Fighter A and they win, your profit is 100 and your total return is 280. The implied probability for -180 is 180/(180+100) = 64.3 percent. This scenario shows the straightforward favorite payout and the market probability attached to that favorite. Investopedia moneyline guide

Funded Plays Challenges and the FundedPlays model let users practice prediction skills in simulated funded challenges, where learning to read moneyline odds and settlement rules is part of building consistent performance.

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Underdog upset: payout and implied probability change

Scenario 2, underdog wins: Using the same lines, if you wager 100 on Fighter B at +150 and they win, your profit is 150 and your total return is 250. Before the event the market implied Fighter B had 100/(150+100) = 40 percent probability. After an upset, public perception and future lines shift, but your payout is determined by the pre-event odds and the operator's settlement. ESPN odds explainer

Draw outcome in two way and three way markets

Scenario 3, a draw: If the bout is officially ruled a draw under the Unified Rules, a two way moneyline might push and return stakes, while a three way moneyline would pay the draw selection and lose the fighter selections. Always check whether the market you used was two way or three way and how that operator grades draws. Unified Rules of MMA

Common mistakes and how to avoid them

Misreading odds and payout math

Top mistake: misreading negative versus positive American odds and calculating stake or return incorrectly. Fix this by writing the math as short equations before you place a wager and double-checking the stake versus profit distinction. Practicing a few worked examples will make the conversions automatic. Investopedia moneyline guide

Ignoring implied probability and value

Another frequent error is treating odds as certainties instead of market probabilities. Convert the odds to implied probability and compare with your independent estimate of the fighter's chances to look for value. If your estimate exceeds the implied probability, the line may offer positive expected value; if not, the bet is less attractive. For background calculators see an odds converter that supports multiple formats.

Not checking house rules or draw handling

Failing to verify whether a market is two way or three way or neglecting operator push rules can lead to unexpected outcomes. Always check the operator's posted rules on draws, no contest handling, and timing for results to avoid surprises when the fight ends in an unusual way. Ohio Casino Control Commission FAQ

Quick pre bet checklist for UFC moneyline wagers

Three minute checklist

Confirm whether the market is two way or three way and verify how draws are handled for your selection. Calculate implied probability from the listed American odds and confirm the stake-to-return math for your planned wager. Check the operator house rules for settlement, no contest, and official result windows. Finally, set a stake consistent with your bankroll plan and avoid chasing loss or overexposure on a single event. Massachusetts sports wagering catalog See the Funded Plays blog for related posts on discipline and evaluation.

Simple odds to implied probability calculator

Enter American odds exactly

When to walk away

Walk away if you cannot rationally estimate a fighter's probability, if house rules are unclear, or if the event settlement language is not posted for your jurisdiction. Consistent, disciplined decision making is preferable to impulsive wagers based on emotion or incomplete information. Funded Plays provides structured challenges for practice, and you can read about how our evaluations work to understand the program.

What does a negative moneyline number mean?

A negative American odds number shows how much you must risk to win 100; for example -150 means risk 150 to win 100.

How do I convert moneyline odds to probability?

Use the formulas for American odds: negative odds use -odds/(-odds+100); positive odds use 100/(odds+100) to get implied probability.

If a UFC bout is a draw, will my moneyline bet lose?

It depends on the market: two way moneylines often push on a draw while three way markets list draw as a separate, cashing selection; check the operator's rules.

Understanding the ufc moneyline and the math behind American odds helps you make clearer, more disciplined choices. Always check operator settlement rules and regulator catalogs in your jurisdiction before placing real-money wagers, and treat odds as market estimates rather than guarantees.