This article answers, with evidence and practical steps, who was favored to win the 2026 Open Championship and how to interpret pga odds. It walks through the headline snapshot, explains how to convert American odds into implied probabilities, and outlines a repeatable decision framework for assessing market prices against model estimates. Readers will get a concrete worked example using the ESPN FanDuel snapshot that named Sam Burns the favorite, a primer on course fit at Royal Birkdale, and a short checklist to use when live odds move during tournament play. The aim is to give clear, non-hyped guidance useful for sports fans, handicappers, and participants in skill-focused prediction challenges.

Sam Burns was the market favorite in the ESPN FanDuel snapshot entering the final round of the 154th Open.

Converting American odds to implied probabilities and adjusting for vig is essential for apples-to-apples comparisons.

Watch aggregators and live odds boards to see how favorites shift with leaderboard and weather updates.

Quick snapshot: Who was favored at the 154th Open?

The simplest, evidence-based answer is that Sam Burns was the market favorite entering the final round of the 154th Open. That status is reported by ESPN, which cited a FanDuel odds snapshot showing Burns as the top-priced contender on the board ESPN betting snapshot and coverage by CBS Sports CBS Sports odds.

That betting snapshot should be read in context: the event was the 154th Open, staged at Royal Birkdale, a classic links test that often shifts how markets set prices because of wind and firm turf The R&A tournament page.

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Odds snapshots during a major are time-sensitive. Aggregators and live boards can show favorites move quickly as leaderboard changes and weather reports arrive; following an aggregated market is different from citing a single sportsbook price Action Network live odds.

Why the venue matters: Royal Birkdale and links-course effects

Royal Birkdale's layout and typical links conditions make it a tournament where wind, firm turf, and run-and-roll play larger roles than at parkland courses. The R&A confirms Royal Birkdale hosted the 154th Open, and that setting matters because it changes which skills the market prizes when setting pga odds The R&A tournament page.

On firm, windy links courses, accuracy with trajectory, creativity around pot bunkers, and the ability to play low controlled shots often carry more predictive weight than raw distance. Markets and models both adjust prices for course fit, so a player who looks like a good fit for Royal Birkdale can be priced more favorably even if their raw form metrics differ.

That course fit effect shows up in lines because sportsbooks and models try to anticipate which players will convert their strokes-gained skills to a links environment. For readers tracking favorites, remembering venue traits helps explain why a market favorite might differ from a simple recent-form leader.

How American odds translate to implied win probability

Converting American odds to an implied probability is essential before comparing players on the same scale. Pinnacle lays out the standard formulas used to translate both positive and negative American prices into implied win chances Pinnacle odds conversion.

In practice the formulas are used like this. For a negative American number, probability equals the negative odds divided by negative odds plus 100. For a positive American number, probability equals 100 divided by odds plus 100. Using these formulas lets you turn a board of varied American prices into comparable percentages.

convert American odds into implied probability and adjust for vig

Use same field names when applying formula

Worked examples make this usable. If a favorite is listed at a negative price, apply the negative formula. If a long shot shows a positive price, apply the positive formula. After conversion, the next step is to reflect market vig which inflates total implied probability above 100 percent.

Adjusting for vig is a must when comparing implied probabilities across books or against model outputs because the raw implied percentages sum to more than 100 percent. Normalizing the probabilities by dividing each implied chance by the total implied sum removes the overround and produces a fairer apples-to-apples comparison.

Where to watch: live odds boards and market aggregators

Close full frame view of a tournament leaderboard and odds board displaying live pga odds and changing prices in minimalist Funded Plays style with dark background and pale gold accents

Live odds boards and market aggregators are the best way to see how favorite status changes during tournament week. Sites that track movement show how the market shifts after each round, tee-time block, or weather update, and they can provide a consensus view that a single sportsbook snapshot cannot Action Network live odds.

An aggregator like OddsChecker compiles many books into a side-by-side comparison that highlights outlier lines and consensus pricing. Watching aggregate movement is useful because it reveals whether a change is localized to one price provider or reflects broad market revaluation OddsChecker market comparison.

For readers tracking favorites on the day, practical uses include watching how prices move when a leader posts a low round, how weather forecasts affect the morning and afternoon tee blocks, and whether injury or withdrawal information creates rapid price swings. Aggregators make those shifts visible faster than polling individual books by hand.

Models versus sportsbooks: why DataGolf probabilities can diverge from pga odds

Model-based projections differ from market prices because models use explicit inputs and a consistent method to estimate probability. DataGolf, for example, builds a predictive framework that combines strokes-gained form, field strength, and course and condition adjustments to produce a win probability estimate for each player DataGolf methodology.

There are several reasons model outputs and sportsbook odds diverge. Models weight inputs systematically and may emphasize long-term strokes-gained trends, while the market incorporates real-time information, sentiment, and the implicit cost of liquidity. Sportsbooks also embed vig and may move a line to balance books, which can push prices away from pure probability estimates.

When you see a gap between a model and the market, it is not proof either side is wrong. It is a signal to investigate: check whether the model has updated for relevant course fit, whether the market is reacting to breaking news, and whether implied vig explains part of the difference. That disciplined approach helps identify where genuine value might exist.

A practical decision framework: finding value in pga odds

Step 1 is convert prices to implied probabilities and normalize for vig so you are comparing percentages, not raw prices. Using a consistent conversion method makes later comparisons meaningful, and it is the baseline for any value assessment Pinnacle odds conversion.

Step 2 is to compare the market implied probability to a model-derived estimate, such as one built from strokes-gained measures and course adjustments. If a model probability meaningfully exceeds the market implied number after adjusting for vig, that gap can indicate potential value, though it should be tempered by uncertainty in the model inputs DataGolf methodology.

Step 3 is to account for uncertainty and position sizing. Even when a model suggests value, majors and links conditions amplify variance. Use conservative sizing inside a disciplined plan, and treat any single major as a learning opportunity rather than a guaranteed profit event. Models guide decisions, they do not guarantee outcomes.

Following these three steps creates a repeatable process: normalize the market prices, compare to a carefully constructed estimate, and adjust for vig and uncertainty before concluding that a market favorite or underdog represents genuine value. That structured method mirrors the controlled approach used in skill-focused prediction challenges.

Planned reader action: quick checklist and a short CTA

Three quick checks before citing or acting on a favorite: confirm the snapshot timestamp so you know when the price applied, convert the American odds to implied probability and normalize for vig, and compare the normalized percentage to at least one model-based estimate or aggregator consensus.

Also remember that links weather and tee times can change pricing quickly. Refresh live boards during the day and watch how leader proximity to tee times and forecast changes affect the market before you lock in a conclusion Action Network live odds.

See how structured challenge rules frame disciplined prediction

Compare live odds and a model estimate before making your next call, and use a structured checklist to keep decisions disciplined.

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Common mistakes and traps when reading pga odds

A frequent error is over-interpreting a single sportsbook snapshot as the market. One book can be out of line for a short period, so checking an aggregator prevents false certainty about a favorite or value pick OddsChecker market comparison.

Another common trap is ignoring the vig or market overround. Raw implied probabilities sum to more than 100 percent, and failing to normalize them leads to overstating a player's chance. Always adjust for the overround before comparing to model outputs Pinnacle odds conversion.

Finally, treat model outputs as estimates with uncertainty. Models help prioritize candidates and quantify probabilities, but they can miss late-breaking, non-quantifiable factors. Use model output as a tool rather than a definitive answer DataGolf methodology.

Practical examples: converting Sam Burns' favorite status into probabilities

Start with the ESPN report that Sam Burns was the favorite on the FanDuel snapshot entering the final round. That report is the basis for a worked conversion from American odds to an implied percentage for Burns and for comparative purposes against other players on the board ESPN betting snapshot. See also the PGA Tour betting profile for Burns Sam Burns betting profile and Sports Illustrated's live odds coverage SI live odds.

Use the standard formulas for conversion then normalize for vig. After converting Burns's FanDuel price to an implied probability, place that percentage beside comparable converted probabilities for nearby contenders to see who the market effectively ranks above or below Burns. This is how you turn a list of prices into a meaningful leaderboard of implied chances.

Who was favored to win the 2026 Open Championship and how should I read pga odds?

Sam Burns was the market favorite in the ESPN FanDuel snapshot entering the final round of the 154th Open. To interpret pga odds, convert American prices to implied probabilities, normalize for vig, compare market percentages to model estimates, and treat any snapshot as time-sensitive evidence rather than a certainty.

Next, compare the market implied probability to a model estimate. A model such as DataGolf's uses strokes-gained inputs and course adjustments to produce a win probability. If the model's probability for Burns materially exceeded the market-implied percentage after accounting for vig, that gap would be a signal to investigate further, not an automatic call to action DataGolf methodology.

When walking this example through, readers should note that a gap can come from multiple causes: the market embedding bettor sentiment or liability management, the model not capturing a late course condition update, or simple sample variance in model inputs. Each explanation changes how you treat the gap for value assessment.

How in-tournament shifts (leaderboard, weather) change favorites fast

Odds move quickly during majors because new scoring information, shifting wind, and tee-time clusters change expectations for remaining groups. Live feeds capture these movements as they happen, showing favorites rise or fall with each new round's information Action Network live odds.

Royal Birkdale's links-weather volatility makes these shifts especially likely. A sudden onshore breeze or a calm afternoon can flip the advantage between tee-time blocks, and markets price that information into pga odds in near real time The R&A tournament page.

For readers, a conservative reaction plan is best: wait for confirming evidence across multiple live sources, check whether the model updates for the new conditions, and avoid overtrading on every small movement. Respecting model uncertainty reduces costly reactive decisions.

Using odds information in skill-based prediction platforms

Skill-based prediction platforms are a useful input for skill-based prediction platforms, but they should be one of several pieces of evidence. Combining a market-implied probability with your own model estimate and course-fit assessment produces a more robust input set for a prediction challenge entry.

FundedPlays is an example of a platform that emphasizes structured evaluation and disciplined bankroll rules rather than treating odds as guarantees of outcome. Use market information to inform a prediction, then follow platform rules for position sizing and risk limits so that assessments remain controlled and consistent.

Minimalist 2D vector showing a calculator converting numbers into probability bars illustrating pga odds in a dark Funded Plays color palette with soft yellow accents

Remember that odds from sportsbooks reflect market pricing, not a deterministic forecast. In challenge-style environments, consistently applying a measured process will generally outperform ad hoc reactions to every price move.

A short checklist: what to verify before citing a favorite

Five quick verification steps: note the snapshot timestamp, convert the American odds to implied probability and normalize for vig, check an aggregator for consensus, compare with a model estimate, and confirm there is no late injury or weather news that changes the context Pinnacle odds conversion.

When judging whether a divergence is meaningful, focus on qualitative thresholds rather than hard numbers. Look for sustained movement across boards, model agreement, and credible news as confirmation before treating a favorite shift as decisive.

Conclusion: short answer and fair expectations

Short answer: Sam Burns was the market favorite in the ESPN FanDuel snapshot entering the final round at the 154th Open; that snapshot provides a clear example of how a favorite can be identified from pga odds ESPN betting snapshot.

The main practical takeaways are straightforward: convert odds to implied probabilities, normalize for vig, compare market percentages to model estimates, and treat snapshots as time-sensitive evidence rather than guarantees. A disciplined, evidence-based approach is the most reliable way to interpret favorites and identify potential value in pga odds DataGolf methodology.

Appendix: quick formulas and recommended resources

Conversion formulas for American odds: for negative American odds use probability = -odds / (-odds + 100). For positive American odds use probability = 100 / (odds + 100). After converting all prices, compute the overround and normalize each probability by dividing by the total implied sum to remove vig effects Pinnacle odds conversion.

Recommended pages to keep at hand when reporting or checking live prices include the ESPN betting snapshot for price reporting, The R&A tournament page for venue details, DataGolf's methodology for model context, and live aggregator pages such as Action Network and OddsChecker for market consensus Action Network live odds.

How do I convert American odds to implied probability?

Use the standard formulas: for negative odds probability = -odds/(-odds+100), for positive odds probability = 100/(odds+100), then normalize for vig.

Why did Sam Burns appear as the market favorite?

ESPN reported a FanDuel snapshot showing Burns as the favorite; market snapshots reflect current pricing and can change with leaderboard and weather updates.

Should I treat a sportsbook favorite as a certainty?

No. Favorites reflect market pricing, not guarantees; convert odds, compare to model estimates, and adjust for vig and uncertainty before drawing conclusions.

Odds show what the market is willing to pay for a player's chance, not a guarantee of the outcome. By converting prices to probabilities, adjusting for vig, and comparing to model estimates while respecting uncertainty, readers can make more informed judgments about favorites and potential value. Treat each major as a test of process. Consistent, disciplined evaluation over time is more valuable than reacting to every single price move.