This article explains who the early pga championship favorites are for the 2026 PGA Championship and why those lists look the way they do. We combine venue context, market snapshots, and strokes-gained evidence to give readers a clear, actionable preview that helps you track changes responsibly.

Aronimink’s architecture shifts the premium to approach and tee-to-green excellence.

Early markets and model baselines currently place Scottie Scheffler at the top of 2026 lists.

Treat early favorites as a starting point and update views with timestamped odds and strokes-gained data.

Quick snapshot: where the 2026 PGA Championship will be and why early favorites matter

The 2026 PGA Championship is scheduled for Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania, which places the event on a classic Donald Ross layout with a modern restoration emphasis noted by the organizing body.

That venue confirmation appears in the PGA of America future sites listing, and it helps settle one foundational piece of the preview before markets and models are considered PGA of America future sites.

Early favorite lists are useful because they synthesize market sentiment, recent form, and model outputs at one point in time, but they remain a snapshot that will shift with player performance, injuries, and schedule changes.

Readers should treat initial lists as a starting point rather than a final projection, and use them to prioritize follow up research as the championship approaches.

Early markets and who bookmakers list as favorites right now

In early 2026 futures markets, Scottie Scheffler has been listed as the betting favorite, with Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm appearing among the shortest prices in many market snapshots; specific odds and ranks vary by book and update time SportsLine coverage of early odds. See Golf Channel coverage Golf Channel.

Markets reflect both recent results and what bettors expect a player to bring to a specific venue, so short prices for familiar names are often a blend of form and perceived course fit.

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Odds differ across sportsbooks and change as new information arrives, so checking timestamped snapshots and bookmaker comparisons is essential when interpreting any single early favorite list OddsChecker market overview (see Funded Plays homepage).

Market position gives a useful signal for who bettors and some models prize, but it does not guarantee results; markets can incorporate biases and liquidity effects as well as objective form signals.

Course fit: why Aronimink’s design changes which players are favored

Aronimink is a Donald Ross design that underwent a Gil Hanse restoration, and the course is commonly described as rewarding precise approach play and handling of fast, contoured greens Golf Digest Aronimink profile.

Those architectural traits shift the premium toward players who excel tee to green, since long approach shots, angles into the greens, and the ability to hold slopes become decisive over four rounds.

When analysts weigh early pga championship favorites, venue factors like green contours and approach angles push ball-striking metrics higher in the checklist than raw proximity to pin averages or headline win totals.

Data-driven case: strokes-gained and why models place Scheffler near the top

Independent strokes-gained baselines entering 2026 place Scottie Scheffler at or near the top of many rankings, and that strokes-gained positioning supports his presence at the front of early favorite lists DataGolf player rankings.

Strokes-gained is a way to measure how a player performs relative to the field in specific phases, such as approach, tee to green, and putting; thinking in these buckets makes it easier to match skills to course demands.

Who is favored to win the 2026 PGA Championship?

Early markets and independent strokes-gained baselines place Scottie Scheffler as the leading favorite for the 2026 PGA Championship, though odds and model rankings will evolve with new information.

Models that combine recent form with strokes-gained baselines and course priors often align with markets when a player shows elite tee-to-green numbers and consistent major-level finishes, but they can diverge if bettors emphasize recency or name recognition.

It is important to remember that models use historical baselines and will update as new event data and form indicators come in, so an early model-based favorite is still conditional on updated inputs.

A simple framework to evaluate any pga championship favorites list

1) Venue fit: check whether the course rewards approach precision, distance, or short-game touch, and weight those traits accordingly for Aronimink (see our blog Funded Plays blog).

2) Recent form: look at the last 12 months and especially the recent run into majors, focusing on tee-to-green trends rather than isolated wins.

3) Strokes-gained profile: compare a player’s approach and tee-to-green metrics to what the course demands, since those categories often matter most at Aronimink DataGolf player rankings.

4) Volatility and risk: note injury status, scheduling conflicts, and sample-size noise that can move odds independently of true expected performance.

For Aronimink specifically, give extra weight to approach and tee-to-green measures, and be cautious about placing heavy emphasis on short-term putting streaks that may regress on contoured surfaces (see how our evaluations work Funded Plays evaluations).

Common mistakes to avoid when reading early odds and previews

One common error is treating early odds as if they are firm predictions; markets are informed estimates that respond to new information and bettor flows, not fixed forecasts SportsLine coverage of early odds.

Another frequent mistake is overweighting a single headline stat, like total wins, without checking whether the player’s underlying ball-striking profile fits a given course setup.

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Avoid overreacting to short-term form spikes, and seek cross-checks such as model rankings and venue-specific performance before assuming a player is a true favorite.

Player scenarios: profiles of likely contenders and potential dark horses

Scottie Scheffler, profile. Scheffler’s placement at the top of many early market lists aligns with strokes-gained baselines that put him among the leading players going into 2026, making him a data-backed front-runner in many previews DataGolf player rankings.

Minimalist 2D vector strokes gained bar chart comparing top contenders with full bleed dark background and a pale gold accent on the leading bar pga championship favorites

His strengths in consistent tee-to-green play and controlled approach distances match what analysts expect to be rewarded at Aronimink, which helps explain why both models and markets list him near the front.

Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm, profile. McIlroy and Rahm appear as short prices in early markets because each combines major experience with high-level ball-striking; market placement reflects both recent performance and perceived course fit OddsChecker market overview.

Those players can be threats at Aronimink if they control approach angles and handle the fast, contoured greens under major conditions.

Dark-horse profile one, elite ball-striker returning to form. A player who has elite ball-striking metrics but limited recent wins can surge if approach numbers stabilize and course fit is strong.

Dark-horse profile two, steady major performer. Someone with a history of major-level consistency, even without many recent headline wins, can outperform early odds if they excel on the course traits emphasized at Aronimink.

Bottom line: who is favored now, how things can change, and next steps

Short summary, now. In early 2026 markets and many independent models, Scottie Scheffler is the leading favorite, while Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm sit among the next-shortest prices; this alignment reflects both market sentiment and strokes-gained baselines SportsLine coverage of early odds (see CBS Sports listing CBS Sports).

Aronimink’s design elevates ball-striking importance, which explains why tee-to-green metrics and approach numbers matter more in previews and pricing than some headline stats Golf Digest Aronimink profile.

Next steps. Track updated market snapshots, check refreshed strokes-gained leaderboards, and watch official player news for injuries and schedule decisions before revising any early view. Also check the official PGA Championship odds page here.

Quick checklist for tracking odds and model updates

Strokes gained leaderboards
Timestamped odds page
Official player news

Recheck inputs after major events

How reliable are early favorites for a major?

Early favorites reflect market sentiment and model outputs at a point in time but are not guarantees. They update as player form, injuries, and course information change.

Why does Aronimink favor certain player types?

Aronimink rewards precise approach play and handling of contoured greens, so players with strong tee-to-green metrics typically have an advantage.

How should I track changes in odds and models?

Use timestamped market snapshots, updated strokes-gained leaderboards, and official player news to reassess probabilities as new information arrives.

Markets and models offer useful early signals, but outcomes will depend on how players adapt to Aronimink and how form evolves into 2026. Keep the focus on venue fit, updated metrics, and official player news when revising any early favorite list.