The Sony Open in Hawaii is one of the PGA TOUR's early-season events and a useful case study for understanding how open golf odds are formed. With a par-70 course at Waialae Country Club, the event rewards accuracy and short-game skill, qualities that shape which players become market favorites. This guide explains why course fit matters at Waialae, how bookmakers and media influence opening boards, and practical steps you can use to compare prices and make value-focused decisions during tournament week.

Waialaeavors approach and putting, so markets prize precise short-iron players.

Opening boards list favorites based on course fit and recent form, but live prices can move quickly.

Compare multiple books and use a checklist to convert odds into a disciplined decision.

What the Sony Open is and why Waialae matters for open golf odds

The Sony Open is an early January stop on the PGA TOUR held each year at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, a par-70 layout that places a premium on precision rather than length, which feeds directly into how open golf odds are set for the event PGA TOUR tournament page.

Waialae is compact by modern TOUR standards and rewards accurate approach shots and steady short-game play more than long driving; analytics show strokes gained: approach and putting tend to carry outsized weight for success at this venue DataGolf event profile.

The combination of a par-70 scorecard, narrow landing areas and birdie opportunities around the greens explains why bettors and oddsmakers look for short-iron specialists and accurate drivers when forming opening boards, rather than simply valuing raw distance alone DataGolf event profile.

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How bookmakers and media set open golf odds for the Sony Open

Early market lines are built from a mix of recent form, course fit, strokes-gained profiles and expected public interest; bookmakers model these inputs and then adjust prices for their margin and exposure, which is why the same player can have different quotes across outlets PGA TOUR power rankings. (PGA TOUR odds outlook: PGATOUR odds outlook.)

PGA TOUR power rankings and media previews often shape the narrative that feeds early prices, highlighting which players best fit Waialae nd which statistical profiles to prioritize when converting talent and form into market expectations PGA TOUR power rankings.

Operator models, public betting flows and the timing of information releases create variation across opening boards, so one outlet could list a different favorite than another based on model inputs or when each book opened its market Action Network opening board coverage.

Early favorites: who appeared shortest on 2025 opening boards and why

On the early 2025 opening boards and in several previews, precision-oriented names such as Russell Henley and Tom Kim were among the shortest prices, a pattern that reflects the emphasis on approach accuracy at Waialae Action Network opening board coverage. (Golf Channel coverage: Golf Channel.)

Those players were highlighted because their game profiles-reliable short-iron proximity, solid approach numbers and dependable putting-match what past Sony Opens have rewarded, making them natural market favorites when books first post lines Golfweek preview and odds.

When a name appears as the 'shortest' on an opening board, the market is signaling an expectation of course fit plus current form rather than guaranteeing an outcome; opening favoritism is a starting probability that markets will refine as new information arrives Action Network opening board coverage.

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Course-fit analytics: strokes gained signals that predict Sony Open contenders

Data for Waialae consistently points to strokes gained: approach and strokes gained: putting as stronger predictors of good finishes than raw driving distance, which is why analytic profiles drive many market prices for the Sony Open DataGolf event profile.

Close view of a golfer hitting a short iron approach to a tight Waialae green emphasizing precision and shot control open golf odds

Strokes-gained metrics allow bettors to compare players on the specific skills Waialae rewards; a player who gains strokes around the green and on approaches will often be priced more favorably than a bomber who gains primarily off the tee DataGolf event profile.

These course-fit signals are probabilistic: they improve the odds of picking contenders but do not eliminate variance, so markets reflect both the statistical edge and the remaining uncertainty inherent to any four-day golf event PGA TOUR power rankings.

How odds move during tournament week and where to watch for changes

Odds for the Sony Open are fluid throughout the week because operator exposure, late information and public money create reasons for books to reprice players; comparing snapshots across outlets is essential to see where favorites stand Action Network opening board coverage. (See ESPN betting coverage: ESPN.)

Who's favored to win the Sony Open?

Market favorites usually reflect players whose strokes-gained approach and putting profiles fit Waialae; recent opening boards have favored precision players, but live prices and late-week changes determine final favorite status.

Sportbook-affiliated newsrooms and mainstream golf outlets typically publish updated favorite boards starting early in tournament week, giving bettors a current snapshot to work from as the event approaches DraftKings Nation betting preview.

Late-week moves often reflect concrete events such as withdrawals, injury reports or shifts in weather forecasts, and heavy public money can also cause big shorting or drifting for certain names, so keep an eye on both official updates and price action Action Network opening board coverage.

Line shopping and comparing Sony Open betting odds across operators

Because favorite lists and exact prices can differ from one operator to another, line shopping matters: a small price gap on a favored player changes the implied return over time, which is why bettors compare odds boards before committing to a stake Action Network opening board coverage.

Practical methods include tracking several sportsbook boards, noting both the best available price and how lines have moved since opening, and using simple spreadsheets or odds-tracking pages to capture differences before placing a bet DraftKings Nation betting preview. (See the Funded Plays blog: Funded Plays blog.)

Small edges compound over many selections, but bettors should avoid chasing marginal price improvements without a disciplined stake plan and an understanding of variance and bankroll impact Action Network opening board coverage.

How to read open golf odds and convert them into decision-making inputs

Converting listed odds into implied probability is the first step to turning open golf odds into a decision input; implied probability shows what the market thinks a player can achieve and helps identify potential overlays or mispricings Action Network opening board coverage.

A basic conversion example can show the idea: take an American price and convert it to implied probability, remove the book's vig to estimate a clean market expectation, then compare that to your assessment based on course fit and recent form to spot value DataGolf event profile.

Convert American or decimal odds to implied probability and quick EV check

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Decision framework: favorite vs value pick for the Sony Open

Use a short checklist to decide whether to back a market favorite or search for a value outsider: 1) confirm course fit on strokes gained: approach and putting, 2) review recent form over the past six to eight starts, 3) check withdrawal risk or injury news, and 4) compare the live price to your implied probability to size a stake PGA TOUR power rankings. (Read how it works: how Funded Plays evaluations work.)

Weight course fit more heavily at Waialae than pure distance, and be willing to pass on a popular name if the live odds do not offer sufficient edge after you account for the book's margin and current information DataGolf event profile.

Discipline matters: favor smaller, consistent stakes when your edge is marginal and allocate more when you identify a clear overlay from a combination of fit and form; no favorite is a certainty and bankroll rules should guide sizing.

Common mistakes bettors make when betting Sony Open favorites

One frequent error is overweighting recent hot streaks without checking whether the player's skills match Waialae's profile; a name coming in hot on length but not on approach may not translate to Sony Open success Action Network opening board coverage.

Minimal 2D vector split image of a live odds board next to a laptop showing strokes gained charts representing open golf odds analysis in Funded Plays dark navy and gold color palette

Another mistake is ignoring strokes-gained signals; bettors who overlook approach and putting metrics can misread who is truly well suited to the course and end up backing a favorite at an inflated price DataGolf event profile.

Finally, failing to compare odds across operators or chasing lines after large market moves can lead to poor stake decisions and worse realized returns than a disciplined, model-aligned approach would produce DraftKings Nation betting preview.

Scenario examples: applying the framework to named players and an outsider

Russell Henley was an early 2025 board favorite because his short-iron play, course history and putting profile aligned well with Waialae's characteristics, making him a logical short price in opening markets Action Network opening board coverage.

Tom Kim also featured prominently on several opening lists due to a combination of recent form and the traits that matter at Waialae; markets priced him accordingly as a front-runner in early posts Golfweek preview and odds.

For an outsider scenario, look for a player with an above-average approach and putting profile whose live price suggests an implied probability below what your model predicts; that gap is where value can appear, but remember to confirm live prices and field status before committing DataGolf event profile.

Weather, field changes, and last-minute factors that flip open golf odds

Weather and withdrawals are common catalysts for late odds movement at Waialae; a sudden forecast change or the loss of a key competitor can shift market balance and create new favorites or value opportunities DraftKings Nation betting preview.

Alternate fills and the timing of official withdrawal notices also matter because they change the effective field strength and therefore the market-implied probabilities for each player, prompting books to reprice as needed Action Network opening board coverage.

Confirm live prices when the event approaches since last-minute factors are a primary reason pre-week favorites can shorten or drift materially DraftKings Nation betting preview.

How to monitor Sony Open favorites during tournament days

Live odds tracking relies on reconfirming prices at the moment of bet placement and watching for intra-tournament divergences that reflect form, leaderboard movement and fresh public money Action Network opening board coverage.

When a favorite drifts after a poor round or shortens because of early low scores, adjust exposure according to your original edge assessment and bankroll plan rather than reacting emotionally to a single market move DraftKings Nation betting preview.

In all cases, reconfirm the price you are offered and the stake before sending a wager, because live boards can change between the moment you start your transaction and when it is accepted.

Pre-bet checklist: the final steps before backing a Sony Open favorite

Confirm the live price, check for any late withdrawals or weather changes, and make a quick course-fit pass focused on strokes gained: approach and putting before you place a wager DraftKings Nation betting preview. (Funded Plays: Funded Plays homepage.)

Re-run a short recent-form check over the last six starts and decide stake size with a predefined bankroll plan rather than sizing by name recognition or emotion PGA TOUR power rankings.

Finally, only place the bet if the live implied probability from the best available price meaningfully undercuts your assessed probability after accounting for the book's edge.

Summary: who is favored and how to keep open golf odds in your workflow

Waialae rewards approach and putting, which explains why markets tend to favor precise short-iron specialists and accurate drivers when opening the Sony Open odds DataGolf event profile.

Recent opening boards have highlighted names such as Russell Henley and Tom Kim as examples of the favored profile, though those lists are a starting point and not a guarantee of outcomes Action Network opening board coverage.

To follow the 2026 market, rely on sportsbook-affiliated newsrooms and mainstream golf outlets for updated favorite snapshots during tournament week, confirm live prices, and use a disciplined checklist to convert open golf odds into actionable decisions DraftKings Nation betting preview.

How do I find the current Sony Open favorites?

Check sportsbook-affiliated newsrooms and mainstream golf outlets during tournament week and always confirm live prices before placing a bet.

Which player skills matter most at Waialae?

Approach accuracy and putting are the primary skills that correlate with success at Waialae compared to raw driving distance.

Should I always back the opening favorite?

No. Opening favorites reflect course fit and form but should be evaluated against live prices, withdrawals and your own value assessment.

Favorites listed on opening boards are a market's best estimate at that moment, grounded in course fit and recent form. Keep that perspective when you interpret open golf odds for the Sony Open and use a disciplined checklist to turn market prices into reasoned stakes. For 2026, rely on updated odds from sportsbook-affiliated newsrooms and mainstream golf outlets, confirm live prices before betting, and treat markets as evolving information rather than guarantees.