This article explains how NFL playoff berths are decided and how the league s tiebreaker order resolves tied percentages. It is meant for sports fans and analysts who want a clear, practical workflow for estimating clinching chances. You will learn why the NFL uses won-lost-tied percentage, how ties are scored as half a win, and how to apply the official tiebreakers in two-team and multi-team scenarios. The guide also shows how to use projections or an nfl playoffs odds calculator to approximate seeding under plausible outcomes.

NFL playoff berths are determined by won-lost-tied percentage, not raw win totals.

Ties count as half a win and half a loss and affect standings through the winning percentage.

When percentages tie, the NFL applies a published tiebreaker sequence beginning with head-to-head results.

How NFL playoff berths are determined: the basic rule

The single most important rule is that NFL postseason qualification is decided by won-lost-tied percentage, not raw win totals, and a tie counts as half a win and half a loss; this is the basis for division titles and wild-card spots in the standings, and it is the rule used when teams finish with different numbers of games or ties appear during a season NFL tie-breaking procedures.

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View official tie-breaking rules

Put simply, the league ranks teams by their winning percentage, where a tie is treated as one half of a win and one half of a loss. That percentage is what determines whether a team clinches a division, earns a wild-card spot, or falls short; when teams share the same percentage, the NFL applies a published sequence of tiebreakers to separate them.

Why the NFL uses win percentage, and how ties are scored

The NFL counts ties as half a win and half a loss so that standings reflect outcomes accurately when teams do not all play the same number of decisive results, and using a percentage prevents misleading comparisons based purely on raw win totals NFL tiebreaking procedures.

In practice this means a team with a record that includes a tie can rank above or below another team with the same number of wins depending on how the ties and losses combine into the overall percentage, and analysts rely on that percentage when projecting clinches late in the season.

Official tiebreaker order: the step-by-step framework

The NFL publishes a fixed order of tiebreakers that is applied when teams finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages; the main sequence for resolving ties begins with head-to-head results, then division record, common-opponents record, and conference record, followed by strength of victory and strength of schedule, with further criteria available if needed NFL tie-breaking procedures. See also the Fox Sports explainer.

Check the NFL tie-breaking procedures before modeling scenarios

Check the league s official tie-breaking procedures page to confirm the exact order and wording before you build models or finalize projections.

View official tie-breaking rules

Those criteria apply for both division championships and wild-card seeding, and the published order is what the league and media use to translate final game results into playoff brackets.

Applying tiebreakers: two-team versus multi-team procedures

When two teams are tied on percentage, the NFL applies the ordered tiebreakers directly, starting with head-to-head and moving down the list until the tie is resolved NFL tie-breaking procedures.

Multi-team ties are handled differently at first: the same ordered criteria are applied to the entire tied group, and any team that falls out at the first point of differentiation is eliminated; the process continues until the tie is reduced, and when only two teams remain the two-team rules are applied.

Key criteria that often decide ties: head-to-head, division, conference

Head-to-head results are the first and often decisive tiebreaker because a direct win over a rival shows a clear competitive advantage in a specific pairing, and that is why many tied races are settled immediately by who won the matchup between the tied teams NFL tie-breaking procedures.

Are NFL playoffs determined by win percentage?

Yes. The NFL awards playoff berths by won-lost-tied percentage, with ties counting as half a win, and uses a published sequence of tiebreakers to separate teams that finish with the same percentage.

If head-to-head does not apply or does not resolve the tie, division record and conference record are common next tiebreakers since they measure performance against the teams you face most often or within the conference where seeding matters, and those records frequently swing seeding when teams split head-to-head or lack direct meetings.

Strength of victory and strength of schedule: what they are and why they matter

Strength of victory is defined as the combined winning percentage of the opponents a team has beaten, and strength of schedule is the combined record of all opponents a team has faced; both metrics are used later in the tiebreaker sequence when simpler criteria do not separate teams NFL tie-breaking procedures.

These strength metrics are calculated from opponent records and serve to reward results against stronger competition or to measure the comparative difficulty of a team s schedule; they tend to appear as decisive factors only after head-to-head and record-based ties remain unresolved. See related examples on the Patriots site.

estimate clinching scenarios with quick checks

Remaining games
Head-to-head impact
Division record

Use as a starting point for simulation inputs

How to use an nfl playoffs odds calculator to project clinching and seeding

To estimate clinching chances, a practical workflow is to run outcome simulations for remaining games, convert results into won-lost-tied percentages, and then apply the official tiebreaker order to any tied groups to determine who would advance or how seeding changes; media projections and the NFL s Week 18 scenarios follow this basic process NFL Communications Week 18 scenarios. See the Funded Plays blog for more on practical workflows.

When you use an nfl playoffs odds calculator, verify the tool s assumptions about game probabilities and confirm whether it applies head-to-head, division, and conference tiebreakers correctly, because different implementations may shortcut strength-based metrics or handle multi-team ties differently.

Close up of a minimalist standings table showing won lost tied and percentage columns with a small overlay note explaining ties count as half a win for nfl playoffs odds calculator

Keep in mind that projections require current opponent records and up-to-date standings to compute strength of victory or strength of schedule accurately, so any odds table is only as precise as the input data and the tiebreaker logic it applies.

Worked example: resolving a two-team tie step by step

Imagine Team A and Team B finish the season with identical won-lost-tied percentages and they played each other once; to resolve the tie you first check head-to-head: if Team A beat Team B in the regular-season matchup, Team A wins the tiebreak and takes the higher seed NFL tie-breaking procedures.

If the teams did not meet or split meetings, proceed to division record if both are in the same division, then common-opponents and conference record as required, following the published sequence until one team has the advantage.

Worked example: a multi-team tie and stepwise elimination

Consider a three-team tie with Teams X, Y, and Z having the same winning percentage; apply the first tiebreaker to all three teams at once, such as head-to-head among the three, and if one team is worse on that measure it is eliminated and the process repeats with the remaining two teams CBS Sports tiebreaker explainer.

When the group reduces to two teams the two-team rules are used for the final comparison, so multi-team ties are effectively handled by stepwise elimination until a direct comparison remains.

Common mistakes and pitfalls when estimating playoff odds

A frequent error is treating ties as full wins or ignoring them altogether, which misstates the won-lost-tied percentage and can flip clinch projections; remember that ties are half a win and half a loss when you compute percentages NFL tiebreaking procedures.

Other pitfalls include misapplying head-to-head precedence, overlooking division records for teams competing for the same division title, and failing to update opponent records before calculating strength metrics, all of which can lead to incorrect seeding or elimination conclusions.

Week 18 clinching scenarios: how the league publishes and fans use them

The NFL publishes official Week 18 clinching and elimination scenarios that apply the tiebreakers to concrete combinations of final-week results, and those releases are the authoritative source for which outcomes directly produce clinches or eliminations in the final weekend NFL Communications Week 18 scenarios.

Fans and analysts use those scenarios to check whether a given late-season game result secures a division title or wild-card berth, and the league s tables show how tiebreakers are operationalized for specific game outcome combinations.

How media projections and explainers translate tiebreakers into odds

Media models commonly simulate thousands of possible remaining-season outcomes, compute resulting percentages, and then apply the NFL s tiebreaker order to determine who advances in each simulated universe; aggregating those results yields the clinch probabilities reported in public odds tables ESPN tiebreaker explainer. See a complementary explainer at Sporting News.

Minimalist 2D vector flowchart for nfl playoffs odds calculator showing five tiebreaker steps head to head division record common opponents conference record and strength metrics in Funded Plays color palette

As a reader, inspect whether a projection service accounts for ties correctly, applies head-to-head and division rules in multi-team scenarios, and uses up-to-date opponent records for strength metrics before relying on its published odds.

What to check late in the season: a quick checklist

Check current won-lost-tied percentages, head-to-head outcomes between tied teams, division records for teams competing for the same title, and any relevant common-opponents comparisons before accepting a clinch claim NFL tie-breaking procedures.

Also consult the NFL s Week 18 clinching scenarios for final verification and only use strength of victory or strength of schedule after you have ruled out head-to-head and record-based tiebreakers. See an overview of Funded Plays evaluations at https://www.fundedplays.com/blogs/how-fundedplays-evaluations-work.

Conclusion: quick summary and responsible next steps

Playoff qualification is determined by won-lost-tied percentage, with ties counting as half a win, and when percentages match the NFL applies an ordered tiebreaker sequence beginning with head-to-head, then division, common-opponents, and conference records, and later strength metrics as needed NFL tie-breaking procedures.

For practitioners who want to estimate clinching or seeding, the recommended workflow is to simulate remaining-game outcomes, compute won-lost-tied percentages for each scenario, and apply the official tiebreaker order to tied groups; practicing disciplined forecasting in a structured environment can help refine those skills in a low-risk way. Visit Funded Plays for related tools and resources.

Do ties count as wins when determining NFL playoff berths?

Ties count as half a win and half a loss when calculating the won-lost-tied percentage that determines playoff qualification.

What is the first tiebreaker if two teams have the same percentage?

The first tiebreaker is head-to-head results between the tied teams, if such a matchup exists.

When do strength of victory or strength of schedule matter?

Strength metrics are used later in the tiebreaker order only after head-to-head and record-based criteria fail to resolve the tie.

Use official NFL materials for final verification of clinches and consult the league s Week 18 scenarios in tight races. Practicing structured projections and applying the tiebreaker order consistently will improve your estimates over time.