Super Bowl futures are among the most closely watched markets in sports. This article shows how to convert observed team moneylines into implied probabilities, account for sportsbook margin, and present a reproducible, time-stamped team-by-team table for clear comparison. The process is designed for readers who want both an instructional walkthrough and a practical checklist they can apply to live aggregator quotes. Throughout, emphasis is on transparency, consistent rounding, and careful timestamping so published tables remain useful as the market moves.

Convert moneylines to implied percentages, then remove the book margin to see fair chances.

Record timestamps and recent line moves when you publish a team-by-team table.

Use no-vig bands to classify favorites, contenders, and longshots consistently.

At a glance: what this page shows and how to read it

This page converts Super Bowl moneylines into plain implied probabilities, applies a no-vig adjustment, and ranks teams by the fair market-implied chance of winning Super Bowl LX. The team-by-team table referenced here is timestamped so readers know when prices were collected.

The practical purpose is simple: take listed moneyline prices, compute raw implied probabilities, remove the bookmaker margin, and present no-vig probabilities so teams can be grouped into favorites, contenders, and longshots. The methodology and how to read the timestamped table are explained step by step below.

Download the conversion checklist and view the timestamped table

If you want the timestamped table and a compact conversion checklist, review the table near the top of this page and use the appendix checklist to reproduce the math on your own.

Open challenges and tools

Note on timing: Super Bowl futures prices move through the offseason and regular season, so every published table includes a clear odds timestamp and a short note on recent line moves to keep the snapshot meaningful.

Quick summary of findings and table timestamps

The key takeaway is that raw moneyline odds must be converted to implied probability and then adjusted to remove sportsbook margin so comparisons across books are fair. For live price aggregation and current snapshots, consult the aggregators listed later in this article for time-stamped feeds.

How to use the team-by-team table (nfl odds games)

Use the table to check each row for the team name, moneyline, raw implied probability, no-vig probability, rank, source, and timestamp. If multiple books are used, include an aggregate column and a recent-move note so readers see both the quote and context.

How American moneyline odds convert to implied probability

The standard formulas convert American moneyline odds into a plain implied probability that expresses the market's chance estimate; positive and negative moneylines use different formulas and both are straightforward to compute, as outlined in the formula reference below.

For positive American odds (underdog pricing like +250), use the formula implied probability = 100 / (odds + 100). For example, a +250 moneyline converts to an implied probability of 100 / (250 + 100) = 0.2857, or 28.57 percent. The formula and examples are the standard approach to implied probability conversion Investopedia implied probability guide.

For negative American odds (favorite pricing like -140), use the formula implied probability = |odds| / (|odds| + 100). For a -140 moneyline this gives |140| / (140 + 100) = 0.5833, or 58.33 percent. Treat implied probability as the market's estimated chance, not a guarantee of outcome; it reflects prices offered by books at a point in time.

Positive odds formula with worked example

Step 1: Identify a positive moneyline, for instance +350. Step 2: Apply the formula 100 / (350 + 100) = 100 / 450 = 0.2222, or 22.22 percent. Use the same process for any positive moneyline to produce a raw implied probability that can be compared to other raw implieds.

Negative odds formula with worked example

Step 1: Identify a negative moneyline, for instance -200. Step 2: Apply the formula |200| / (200 + 100) = 200 / 300 = 0.6667, or 66.67 percent. Convert all team prices this way before summing implied probabilities to inspect the market overround.

Why raw implied probabilities add to more than 100% and what to do about it

When you convert moneylines for every team in a futures market, the raw implied probabilities almost always sum to more than 100 percent because sportsbooks include a margin, commonly called an overround, to ensure a profit edge. This margin distorts direct probability comparisons across books unless it is removed.

The overround happens because each book builds a spread between fair odds and offered odds that ensures positive expected margin for the operator. A simple two-outcome example makes this clear: if two sides are each priced at implied 55 percent, the summed implieds equal 110 percent, leaving a 10 percent margin embedded in prices. That embedded margin is why you should use a no-vig adjustment when comparing markets Pinnacle on bookmaker margin.

How do I turn Super Bowl moneylines into fair win probabilities?

Convert each moneyline to a raw implied probability using the standard moneyline formulas, sum the raw implieds, then rescale each raw implied by the total to produce no-vig probabilities that sum to 100 percent.

Using no-vig probabilities gives a cleaner view of the market because it rescales probabilities to sum to 100 percent, revealing the fair-implied chances without the book's built-in profit margin.

What bookmaker margin or overround means

The bookmaker margin is the extra percentage embedded in a book's prices that ensures the operator earns money over time. It is reflected in inflated summed implieds and varies by operator, market liquidity, and timing, so it must be measured and removed before ranking teams.

Consequences for comparing prices across books

Without removing the overround, you might misread which team has the better market chance because one book may simply be offering thicker margin than another. For fair cross-book comparisons, convert each quote to raw implied probability and then apply a no-vig method such as the Pinnacle approach described next.

A practical no-vig method: the Pinnacle margin adjustment

The Pinnacle margin adjustment rescales raw implied probabilities so their sum equals 100 percent, producing no-vig probabilities that are better suited for ranking and comparison. The method is simple to implement in a spreadsheet and appropriate for multi-outcome markets like Super Bowl futures Pinnacle on bookmaker margin.

Step-by-step Pinnacle method: 1) Convert each moneyline to raw implied probability. 2) Sum all raw implied probabilities to get the market total. 3) For each team, divide its raw implied by the market total and then multiply by 100 to get the no-vig percentage. This rescales the probabilities so they sum to 100 percent and can be ranked directly.

Step-by-step using the Pinnacle method

Worked example in principle: if three teams have raw implied probabilities of 40, 30, and 35 percent (total 105 percent), the no-vig probabilities are 40 / 105 = 0.38095, 30 / 105 = 0.28571, and 35 / 105 = 0.33333, which rescale to 38.10, 28.57, and 33.33 percent respectively. Use consistent rounding, typically to two decimal places, for presentation.

When this method is considered foundational

The Pinnacle margin adjustment remains a standard practical approach for removing vig because it is transparent, reproducible, and widely taught in betting analysis. It is best used when the market is reasonably liquid and when you are aggregating quotes across books to get a market picture rather than relying on a single stale line.

Where to source current Super Bowl futures prices and why timestamps matter

Reliable, time-stamped Super Bowl futures prices are available from odds aggregators that compile lines across multiple U.S. books; using an aggregator makes it easier to collect source timestamps and capture recent movement before publishing a table. Two widely used aggregators are listed later for reference, including DraftKings and Covers Super Bowl odds page.

Funded Plays Challenges page

Open challenges and tools

When you capture quotes for a table, record the exact timestamp and, where possible, annotate the direction and magnitude of recent line moves. A simple note such as "Timestamp: 2026-01-15 14:30 ET; recent move: Team A down from +250 to +200" gives readers critical context because futures are sensitive to news and betting flow.

Primary odds aggregators to check

Aggregators consolidate prices and make cross-book comparisons practical; the pages used for live monitoring are regularly updated and useful when compiling a time-stamped table for Super Bowl LX, including VegasInsider Super Bowl futures and ESPN's futures page.

How to record and present timestamps and recent moves

Include a source column and a timestamp column in your published table. Add a small "recent move" note when there has been a material shift in the last 24 to 72 hours so readers can tell whether the snapshot reflects fresh market information or a quieter period.

Building the team-by-team table: columns, calculations, and ranking

Close up spreadsheet converting nfl odds games moneylines to implied probabilities with a highlighted no vig column on a dark Funded Plays style background

Create a table with columns in this order: Team, Moneyline, Raw implied probability, No-vig probability, Rank, Source, Timestamp, Recent move. This structure makes the calculation flow transparent and lets readers reproduce the math in a spreadsheet.

Calculation flow: 1) Insert the moneyline. 2) Convert to raw implied using the positive or negative formula. 3) Sum raw implieds across all teams. 4) Apply the Pinnacle no-vig rescale to each team. 5) Sort by no-vig probability to assign ranks. Use two-decimal rounding for probabilities to keep the table tidy.

Recommended table columns and definitions

Team: official team name. Moneyline: American odds as listed. Raw implied probability: result of the moneyline conversion. No-vig probability: Pinnacle-adjusted probability. Rank: position by no-vig chance. Source: aggregator or book. Timestamp: exact time of quote. Recent move: short note if applicable.

Calculation flow: moneyline to implied to no-vig to rank

When aggregating multiple books, add an aggregate market column that averages raw implieds before applying the no-vig adjustment, or compute no-vig per book and then average no-vig values to show cross-book consistency. Always display the method used in a table note so users know how the aggregate was formed.

Grouping teams: favorites, contenders, and longshots using probability bands

Use a simple spreadsheet to compute no-vig probabilities

Team
Moneyline
Raw implied
Sum raw
No-vig probability
Rank

Round probabilities to two decimals

Suggested illustrative bands: Favorites: no-vig probability greater than 15 percent; Contenders: no-vig between 5 and 15 percent; Longshots: no-vig below 5 percent. These thresholds are adjustable based on how concentrated the market is, but they provide quick grouping for readers comparing teams across the market.

Recommended probability bands and rationale

Why these bands work: they map market concentration into intuitive buckets where favorites are teams with a meaningful single-digit chance or better, contenders are plausible winners with modest probability, and longshots cover the broad field of lower-probability teams. Always recalculate bands if the market compresses or expands significantly.

How bands change as lines move

Band thresholds are a guide not a rule. If several teams move materially higher or lower, shift the interpretation and call out any teams that cross band boundaries in the published table so readers can see movement in classification as well as numeric probabilities.

What moves Super Bowl futures: injuries, roster changes, and market flow

Futures move on fundamental news such as injuries, trades, and free agent signings, and also on market flow where heavy public action or sharp bettors cause books to adjust prices. Timing matters: the same news in midseason can have a different effect than the same news in the offseason because expectations and roster context change Action Network on what moves lines.

Betting volume and the mix of public versus sharp action influence how much a line moves. Heavy public money can move available lines, while sharp action can cause books to shift quickly in either direction. For futures, large pre-season moves often reflect structural roster expectations or major injuries reported during training camp.

Types of news that cause big moves

Major driver categories include season-ending injuries to key players, unexpected trades, sudden suspension news, and coaching changes. Each of these can cause reevaluation of team probability and produce visible line movement in the aggregator feeds.

How betting volume and public vs sharp action influence lines

Books watch both sides: public interest can inflate prices for popular teams, while sharp activity can compress favorites and reveal where the market thinks value truly lies. Keep an eye on volume indicators where available and note when movement is driven by public narratives versus information-driven sharp flow.

Common mistakes readers make when comparing futures odds

A frequent error is using raw implied probabilities without removing vig; that leads to misleading comparisons across books and can make one book look better or worse merely because of margin differences. Always convert and then adjust before ranking or labeling value.

Another common mistake is relying on stale timestamps or snapshots from a single book. Because futures are liquid and responsive, a one-book snapshot can misrepresent the market; use aggregators and record timestamps when publishing tables to avoid stale-line mistakes Covers Super Bowl odds page.

Ignoring vig and stale timestamps

Always check that the quote you are using has a recent timestamp and annotate it in any public table. If you cannot confirm the time of the quote, treat the price as less reliable and avoid strong interpretation based on a single stale feed.

Overreacting to single data points

Lines can spike on rumors or thin action; reacting to a single sharp movement without verifying context can lead to poor decisions. Confirm moves with multiple sources or wait for additional information before treating a single quote as a durable edge.

Worked examples: converting five representative team odds to no-vig probabilities

The worked examples below use representative example moneylines to demonstrate the conversion and no-vig steps; for live current team-by-team prices, consult the aggregator pages linked in this article for timestamped quotes, including VegasInsider Super Bowl futures and FanDuel.

Example set (for demonstration only): Team A +300, Team B +150, Team C +700, Team D -120, Team E +1200. These are illustrative numbers showing how ranks can shift after removing bookmaker margin.

Step 1: Convert each moneyline to raw implied probability using the Investopedia formulas. For Team A +300: 100 / (300 + 100) = 25.00 percent. For Team B +150: 100 / (150 + 100) = 40.00 percent. For Team C +700: 100 / (700 + 100) = 12.50 percent. For Team D -120: 120 / (120 + 100) = 54.55 percent. For Team E +1200: 100 / (1200 + 100) = 7.69 percent. These conversions use the standard moneyline formulas Investopedia implied probability guide.

Step 2: Sum the raw implied probabilities. Using the example set above yields a total that exceeds 100 percent because the book margin is included. Step 3: Apply the Pinnacle no-vig rescale by dividing each raw implied by the total and multiplying by 100, which produces no-vig percentages that sum to 100 and can be ranked reliably Pinnacle on bookmaker margin.

Step 4: Compare ranks before and after adjustment. Often a team with an attractive raw implied will retain good standing after no-vig rescale, but sometimes a team that looked like a mid-tier favorite on raw implied can drop when the market overround is removed and other teams' fair shares are restored.

Example conversions from a major aggregator

When performing these conversions on live prices, capture the aggregator and timestamp for each quote. Aggregators consolidate books so you do not have to visit multiple sites for the same snapshot and make it easier to reproduce the example steps with current numbers.

How the ranking changes after removing vig

After removing the vig, re-sort teams by their no-vig probability to see the market's fair ranking. In some instances the no-vig re-rank will promote longshots whose raw implied probabilities were underrepresented relative to the sum, demonstrating why the step matters for fair comparison.

How to assess value and where to look for potential edges

Value occurs when a listed price implies a lower probability than your estimate of the fair no-vig probability; practically, identify spots where an individual book's no-vig price is materially lower than an aggregated market no-vig or your own forecast and then investigate why the discrepancy exists before acting.

Discrepancies across books sometimes indicate soft books offering inferior odds, but they can also reflect recent news and quick line movement. Compare aggregated no-vig markets to individual books to spot potential edges and document reasoning and bankroll limits if you decide to act.

Comparing aggregated no-vig markets to individual books

Compute an aggregated raw implied or aggregated no-vig across multiple books to form a market reference. If an individual book offers a no-vig price substantially better than the aggregated market, it may be worth closer examination as a potential value opportunity.

Behavioral and informational edges

Behavioral edges arise when public sentiment inflates a popular team's price beyond its fair share, while informational edges come from verifiable, underpriced facts such as overlooked depth chart changes or contextual matchup data. Always combine probability work with disciplined exposure limits.

Responsible use and limits of futures markets

Futures markets express collective opinions and pricing, not guarantees. They are useful for planning exposure and identifying long-term edges, but outcomes remain uncertain and markets can be efficient, so avoid treating futures as a substitute for diversified portfolio or guaranteed income streams.

For readers interested in skill-focused alternatives, FundedPlays operates as a funded sports prediction challenge platform where participants demonstrate forecasting ability using virtual accounts and structured evaluations rather than wagering with books. Participation is governed by platform rules and does not guarantee earnings.

What futures markets do and do not promise

Futures provide a market-implied chance based on available information and money flow. They do not promise outcomes or consistent returns, and they can shift rapidly on new information, so treat them as probabilistic signals rather than certainties.

How to integrate futures information into a strategy

Use no-vig probabilities as one input in a broader process that includes matchup analysis, roster context, and disciplined bankroll rules. Limit exposure relative to overall strategy and document why a price looks attractive before increasing position size.

Appendix: quick formulas, timestamp checklist, and reproducible steps

Formula summary: Positive odds implied = 100 / (odds + 100). Negative odds implied = |odds| / (|odds| + 100). Pinnacle no-vig step: divide each raw implied by the raw implied total then multiply by 100.

Minimal 2D vector timeline showing major news events and corresponding futures line moves for nfl odds games in a dark Funded Plays palette

Timestamp checklist: record source, exact time (including timezone), recent move summary, and any known news drivers. Rounding rules: present probabilities to two decimal places and list ranks in natural order.

One-page formula summary

Keep a single reference row in any published table showing the two moneyline formulas and the no-vig rescale so readers can immediately check conversions without re-reading the methodology sections.

Checklist for publishing a current table

Checklist items: confirm aggregator timestamp, note recent moves, calculate raw implieds, compute no-vig, show rank, and disclose rounding rules. This keeps each published snapshot reproducible and transparent.

Conclusion and next steps for readers

Converting moneylines to no-vig probabilities is the most transparent way to compare Super Bowl futures across books and over time. Focus on reproducible steps, timestamping, and consistent rounding when publishing or using a team-by-team table.

Next steps: regularly check aggregators for updated quotes, review related posts on our blog, reproduce the appendix checklist when you publish a snapshot, and use the probability bands to group teams while monitoring news and betting flow that can change classifications quickly.

How do I convert American moneyline odds to implied probability?

Use 100/(odds+100) for positive odds and |odds|/(|odds|+100) for negative odds, then express the result as a percentage.

Why should I remove the bookmaker margin before comparing odds?

Bookmakers embed a margin that inflates summed implied probabilities; removing the margin yields no-vig probabilities that sum to 100 percent for fair comparison.

Where can I find time-stamped Super Bowl futures prices?

Use reputable odds aggregators that provide consolidated quotes and timestamps so you can capture current prices and recent line moves.

If you regularly publish or use Super Bowl futures, make the no-vig conversion and timestamping part of your routine. That practice keeps comparisons fair and helps you spot genuine discrepancies across books. Check the appendix formulas and the aggregator links in this article when you next capture a snapshot, and treat no-vig probabilities as one disciplined input among many when assessing value.