This article gives a step-by-step workflow to make repeatable NFL against the spread decisions in 2026. It combines modern efficiency metrics, standardized injury reporting, disciplined line tracking, and conservative stake sizing to help you evaluate small edges responsibly. If you want a practical path from data to decisions, the sections below walk through definitions, the market landscape, which analytics matter, how to incorporate injury timing, how to read line movement, a simple model you can build, staking rules using Kelly fractions, common mistakes to avoid, and a compact weekly checklist you can start using immediately.

ATS means grading picks relative to the bookmaker's point spread, with outcomes as covers, pushes, or losses.

Modern efficiency metrics such as EPA and success rate are more predictive than raw box-score totals for ATS work.

Because point-spread markets are broadly efficient, disciplined backtesting and conservative staking are essential.

What does "against the spread" mean in the NFL?

Start with a clear definition: against the spread, or ATS, means a selection is evaluated relative to the bookmaker's point spread; a wager wins if the chosen team covers that margin, it pushes on an exact tie, and it loses if the team fails to meet the spread. For a practical example, a favorite listed at minus seven must win by more than seven points for an ATS win, while the underdog covers if it loses by fewer than seven or wins outright. This basic framing remains the standard market for line bets and is the typical way most line bets are settled in 2026, as explained in an overview of the concept by Investopedia Investopedia's ATS guide.

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Readers new to spreads should note three common outcomes. A cover is when the selection beats the spread, a push is an exact tie with the posted margin and typically returns the stake, and a loss is when the selection does not reach the spread. These terms describe how results are graded and provide a consistent language for tracking performance across weeks and seasons.

Because point spreads attempt to balance perceived team strength and betting demand, the ATS market is the primary reference for most NFL side decisions. Professional handicappers, analytics providers, and public reporting typically frame matchups in spread terms rather than raw win-loss outcomes, which helps standardize comparisons across games and weeks.

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Record opening and closing lines and model outputs for each game

Date
Game
Opening line
Closing line
Model edge
Outcome

Use daily rows to track changes

What is the simplest way to start tracking ATS performance?

Begin by recording opening and closing lines, your model's predicted margin, stake size, and the final outcome for each pick. Keep entries consistent and review results weekly.

How important are injury reports when handicapping ATS?

Injury reports are important because standardized disclosures can shift lines; treat last-minute changes seriously and adjust models for player availability.

Should I use full Kelly for stake sizing if I find an edge?

No, most practitioners use partial Kelly fractions or fixed-percentage stakes to limit volatility while an edge is being validated.

Implementing an ATS process is a long game. Expect modest, incremental improvements from disciplined modeling, careful injury monitoring, accurate line logs, and conservative bankroll rules. Track everything, be skeptical of short runs, and gradually refine both your inputs and staking as your documented evidence grows.