This article explains, step by step, how to identify which NHL team is favored using the moneyline, the puck line, implied probability, and a quick way to remove bookmaker margin. It is written for sports fans and handicappers who want a practical routine for reading live hockey odds rather than a deep technical paper. You will learn how to read negative and positive American odds, convert those numbers into implied probabilities, interpret a -1.5 puck line, apply a simple no-vig normalization, and use a short checklist to verify live lines before forming a conclusion about who is favored.

A negative American moneyline denotes the favorite in U.S. hockey markets.

The puck line convention is typically +/-1.5, with the favorite at -1.5 requiring a two-goal win to cover.

Removing the vig produces no-vig probabilities that better approximate the market's true view.

What 'favored' means in hockey odds

In U.S. hockey markets, the label "favorite" is a market shorthand that appears in the price itself: a negative American moneyline shows the market favorite while a positive price marks the underdog. For a quick reference on how moneyline signs identify favorites and underdogs, see the Investopedia moneyline explainer Investopedia moneyline explainer.

Who is favored in the hockey game?

The favorite is the team with the negative American moneyline and often the team shown at -1.5 on the puck line; convert the moneyline to implied probability and, if useful, remove the vig to estimate the market's true probability.

That simple sign tells you who the market expects to win, but it does not by itself say how strongly the market favors that team. A team at -110 is a slight favorite; a team at -250 is a much stronger favorite. The puck line convention in hockey adds another layer: markets often set a standard puck line at -1.5 for the favorite and +1.5 for the underdog, which shifts the focus from pure win likelihood to expected margin.

Why that matters for decisions is straightforward. If you are only asking "who is favored," the negative moneyline gives the direct answer. If you need to know whether that team is expected to win comfortably or merely edge the game, compare the moneyline with the puck line and the price differences to see whether the market expects a narrow win or a wider margin.

How American moneyline odds show the favorite

American moneyline odds use a sign to indicate which side is favored: negative odds show the favorite and positive odds the underdog. The sign convention and examples are well documented in foundational explainers on moneyline betting Investopedia moneyline explainer.

To move from a price to a comparable metric, convert American odds into implied probability with a short formula set. For negative odds the formula is |odds| / (|odds| + 100). For positive odds the formula is 100 / (odds + 100). Learning those two formulas lets you compare how strongly the market favors each side across different numbers.

Here is one worked example. If a team is listed at -150, treat the number as 150 in the negative formula: 150 / (150 + 100) = 150 / 250 = 0.60, or a 60 percent implied probability that the market gives that team to win. That calculation both confirms the team is the favorite and quantifies the strength of favoritism in a way you can compare to other games or books.

One additional practical point is that the sum of implied probabilities for both sides usually exceeds 100 percent because bookmakers build a margin into listed prices. That margin, often called vigorish or the vig, makes direct implied probabilities slightly optimistic when taken at face value, so you should consider removing the vig if you want a truer estimate of market probabilities.

Puck line explained: spotting the favorite by spread

The puck line is the standard spread market in NHL wagering and conventionally sits at plus or minus 1.5 goals, with the favorite shown at -1.5 and the underdog at +1.5. For an overview of that convention and how it is used in NHL markets, see the VSiN puck line explainer VSiN puck line explainer. You can also compare general hockey betting guides like the one at Covers for broader background.

Interpreting a -1.5 listing is direct: the favorite must win by two or more goals for a -1.5 selection to cover. That requirement means puck line prices reflect not only win probability but also the expected margin. A favorite priced at -1.5 with an attractive price implies the market expects a clear win, while a favorite with a puck line that pays little suggests a narrower expected margin.

When moneyline and puck line tell different stories, use them together. The moneyline shows market implied win probability, while the puck line shows expected margin and affects whether a pick that needs the favorite to win big will actually cover. Combining both helps you judge whether to treat the favorite as simply likeliest to win or as a team expected to win by multiple goals.

Quick puck line margin calculator to check -1.5 cover

Enter estimated final scores to see margin

How to convert odds into implied probability

Two concise formulas let you convert any American moneyline into an implied probability. For negative American odds use: |odds| divided by (|odds| plus 100). For positive American odds use: 100 divided by (odds plus 100). These formulas are standard and documented in educational resources that cover American odds conversion Action Network odds conversion.

Follow these short steps for a negative-moneyline conversion: 1) drop the negative sign and use the absolute number; 2) divide that number by the absolute number plus 100; 3) convert the result to a percentage. For example, -200 becomes 200 / (200 + 100) = 200 / 300 = 0.6667, or about a 66.7 percent implied probability.

For positive odds the steps are equally simple: 1) use the listed positive number; 2) divide 100 by the odds plus 100; 3) convert to a percentage. So a +180 line converts as 100 / (180 + 100) = 100 / 280 = 0.357, or about a 35.7 percent implied probability.

Minimalist 2D vector puck line diagram explaining hockey odds with visual markers showing two goal margin requirement for the minus side on a Funded Plays dark background

Interpreting these percentages helps when you compare favorites across games or across books. Implied probability gives an apples-to-apples view of how strongly the market rates each team to win, while the moneyline sign itself quickly identifies the favorite in any listing. For additional live odds comparison, consider checking sites such as MoneyPuck or the NHL odds pages on ESPN to see how prices change in real time.

Removing the vig: estimating the market's true probabilities

Bookmaker vigorish is embedded in listed prices, which is why adding implied probabilities from both sides typically yields more than 100 percent. That built-in margin protects books and slightly inflates the raw implied probabilities you compute from listed odds. For a primer on implied probability and the effect of vig, consult an implied probability reference Investopedia implied probability.

A common simple normalization removes the vig by dividing each side's implied probability by the sum of both implied probabilities, then rescaling so the two normalized probabilities sum to 100 percent. For example, if the two raw implied probabilities are 60 percent and 44 percent, their sum is 104 percent. Dividing each by 104 percent gives approximately 57.69 percent and 42.31 percent as the no-vig probabilities. That adjustment produces a cleaner, comparable market probability that better reflects what the market collectively prices after removing the book's margin.

Compare live odds and apply the checklist on FundedPlays Challenges

Use the checklist below to compare live moneylines and puck lines and apply a quick no-vig check before you draw conclusions about who is favored.

See challenge options

Remember that no-vig normalization yields an estimate rather than a guarantee. Normalized probabilities reflect market opinion with the margin removed, but they still depend on available information and may change as books update lines in response to news or betting flow.

Checking live odds and line movement for context

For up-to-date verification of who is favored, consult live NHL odds dashboards that publish continuously updating moneylines and puck lines. Live pages make it simple to confirm the negative moneyline or the -1.5 puck line and to monitor how those prices move as new information arrives; see a live odds overview for common dashboards TheLines live odds overview. You can also track markets on comparison pages and analytics sites such as MoneyPuck to follow price shifts and model outputs.

Line movement typically reflects incoming information such as a late goalie change, a key injury, announced rest, or significant public betting. When lines shift toward one side, the market is pricing in that new information. Watching the speed and direction of moves helps you decide whether an early line or a later line better matches the information you trust.

A short verification routine is useful: 1) check the current moneyline to confirm the negative sign, 2) check the puck line for a -1.5 or +1.5 listing, and 3) review recent movement and any associated news headlines. When in doubt, prioritize live pages over screenshots or archived lines, since cached prices can leave out late-breaking updates. For a broad primer on how to bet on hockey, see the general guide at Covers.

Decision checklist: step-by-step to identify the favorite

Use this ordered checklist before you conclude which team is favored and how strongly the market expects a win:

Locate the moneyline and identify the sign. A negative value marks the favorite.
Check the puck line. A -1.5 listing identifies the favorite in spread terms and signals a requirement to win by two or more to cover.
Convert the moneyline into implied probability to quantify favoritism.
Optionally remove the vig to get a no-vig probability that better approximates the market's true view.
Check live odds pages and recent line movement for any late news that might change the read.

When deciding whether to rely on the moneyline or the puck line, remember the tradeoffs: the moneyline best represents raw win probability, while the puck line better captures expected margin and cover considerations.

Funded Plays Challenges

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Use live checks often on Funded Plays. Markets update quickly and the favorite label can flip if line moves or new information alters the perceived balance between teams. Treat the checklist as a reproducible routine rather than a one-off trick. For additional reading on our approach, see the Funded Plays blog and the post on how funded plays evaluations work.

Common errors and pitfalls when identifying favorites

A frequent error is misreading the sign on American odds and thinking a positive price indicates the favorite. Remember that the negative sign denotes the favorite; if you convert odds without checking the sign you can flip your conclusion. For a refresher on implied probability conversion methods, see a standard educational guide Action Network odds conversion.

Another mistake is relying on stale lines or screenshots. Lines move as information becomes available, and using outdated prices can lead to incorrect reads. Always consult a live odds page rather than an old capture to confirm who is currently favored.

Failing to account for the vig is also common. Taking raw implied probabilities at face value without normalization overestimates each side's chance to some degree. Simple no-vig normalization corrects for that embedded margin and yields cleaner percentage estimates you can compare across games.

Practical examples and final takeaways

Scenario 1: The listed prices are -140 for Team A and +120 for Team B, and the puck line shows Team A -1.5. The negative moneyline identifies Team A as the favorite and the -1.5 puck line indicates the market expects a reasonably decisive win. Converting -140 gives about a 58.33 percent raw implied probability, which you can normalize if you want a no-vig figure.

Scenario 2: Moneyline shows Team C at -110 and Team D at -110 in a listed market quirk, while the puck line is Team C -1.5. Here the moneyline suggests a coin-flip style game but the -1.5 puck line signals that some of the market expects Team C to win by multiple goals. That divergence is a cue to check recent news, goalie status, and line movement before deciding which signal to trust more.

Scenario 3: A blowout favorite at -300 with a puck line of -1.5 shows a strong market expectation for a multiple-goal win. Converting -300 yields a raw implied probability of 75 percent, and after no-vig normalization the market still clearly favors the listed favorite. Use that information to decide whether you care about win probability or cover probability in your decision.

Key takeaways: 1) find the negative moneyline to identify the favorite quickly; 2) use puck line -1.5 to assess whether the market expects a multi-goal win; 3) convert to implied probabilities and optionally remove the vig for clearer comparisons; and 4) always verify live lines and check news for changes. Market prices reflect collective opinion and provide a useful, though not guaranteed, guide to who is favored.

How do I quickly tell who is favored in an NHL game?

Look for a negative American moneyline or a -1.5 puck line; the negative moneyline denotes the favorite and -1.5 on the puck line indicates the favorite must win by two or more to cover.

What is implied probability and why should I use it?

Implied probability converts odds into a percentage that expresses the market's view of a team winning; it makes different prices directly comparable and helps quantify how strongly a team is favored.

What does removing the vig do?

Removing the vig rescales raw implied probabilities so they sum to 100 percent, producing an estimated market probability without the bookmaker margin.

Market prices and normalized probabilities are estimates based on available information and collective market action, not guarantees of outcomes. Use the checklist and conversion methods here as tools to form clearer, more consistent reads when you check live moneylines and puck lines. Practicing these steps will make favorite identification routine and reduce errors from stale lines, misread signs, or ignored margins.