This guide walks through the practical differences between the moneyline and the puck line in NHL markets and shows how to decide between them using implied probability, expected value, and conservative stake sizing. It is designed for sports fans and bettors who want a structured, repeatable way to evaluate market prices before placing wagers. You will learn the key rules that change how each market is graded, how to convert odds into comparable probabilities, a clean EV-based decision framework, and simple stake-sizing methods that protect your bankroll. The steps can be practiced on paper or in simulated challenges to build confidence without risking real funds.

Moneyline bets pay on the final game winner, usually including overtime and shootouts.

The puck line is typically a 1.5-goal spread that requires a two-goal regulation win to cover.

Convert odds to implied probability and use EV plus fractional Kelly to pick the market and stake size.

Hockey betting lines explained: moneyline and puck line

Short definitions: hockey betting lines

The moneyline is the straightforward market that pays depending on which team wins the game, and most moneyline prices are graded to include overtime and shootouts, so the payout reflects the final winner rather than only regulation outcomes, which helps when comparing options like the puck line Moneyline definition at Investopedia.

Which market tends to offer better long-term value for consistent bettors, the puck line or the moneyline?

Neither market is inherently better; use implied probability and expected value to compare prices, and prefer the puck line when your model shows a justified two-goal regulation edge, otherwise choose the moneyline and size stakes with fractional Kelly.

How NHL game resolution (OT and shootout) affects line grading

In the NHL, overtime and shootouts resolve games by a single additional goal under current rules, and that single-goal resolution means a favorite on a -1.5 puck line will not cover if the game is decided after regulation NHL Official Rules 2024-25. Historical rule changes.

How moneyline pricing works and what implied probability shows

American odds to implied probability: formulas and quick examples

American odds convert to implied probability with a standard formula: for positive American odds, implied probability = 100 / (odds + 100); for negative odds, implied probability = -odds / (-odds + 100), which lets bettors turn any moneyline price into the market-implied chance of a win Implied probability definition at Investopedia.

Why comparing implied probabilities beats looking only at payouts

Comparing raw payouts can mislead because the same return may reflect very different implied chances; converting prices into implied probabilities normalizes the markets so a moneyline and a puck line can be compared directly on the same scale Implied probability definition at Investopedia.

How the puck line is structured and priced

Typical puck line quotes and how favorite/underdog pricing differs

The puck line is most commonly set at a 1.5-goal margin, which turns a straight win market into a spread market where favorites on -1.5 often carry plus-money and underdogs on +1.5 are priced to reflect the built-in one-and-a-half goal cushion What Is the Puck Line in NHL Betting at Action Network. DraftKings hockey rules.

Impact of a 1.5-goal spread on outcomes including OT/SO

Close up laptop screen showing a minimalist spreadsheet converting American odds to implied probabilities with a blurred hockey game in the background suitable for hockey betting lines

Because the 1.5-goal spread requires a two-goal margin in regulation for a favorite to cover, any finish settled by overtime or shootout will remove the possibility of a -1.5 cover, so bettors must treat puck-line outcomes as regulation-focused results even when moneylines include OT and shootouts NHL Official Rules 2024-25.

Example: a heavy favorite listed at -1.5 may pay better than the straight moneyline because the book compensates for the lower probability of a two-plus-goal regulation win What Is the Puck Line in NHL Betting at Action Network.

Practice the EV checklist in a challenge-style environment

Try the quick checklist in this article on one or two recent matchups before you stake real funds, treating the exercise as practice rather than an assured edge.

Explore Funded Plays Challenges

A quantitative framework: expected value (EV) for comparing markets

EV definition and the moneyline vs puck line comparison

Expected value, or EV, is the average long-run return of a wager and is calculated as EV = (probability of win * payoff) - (probability of loss * stake); this gives a consistent way to compare the moneyline and puck line by converting both into expected monetary outcomes Expected Value (EV) definition at Investopedia.

Worked EV example (small numeric case)

To use EV for a head-to-head decision, first convert both markets to implied probability, then insert those probabilities and the respective payouts into the EV formula; start with conservative probability estimates to avoid overbetting based on optimistic assumptions Implied probability definition at Investopedia.

Sizing stakes: Kelly Criterion and practical fractional approaches

Kelly formula and intuition

The Kelly Criterion links your estimated edge and the odds to a recommended fraction of bankroll to stake; in simple terms, Kelly = (edge / odds_decimal) when odds are expressed appropriately, and it provides a mathematically grounded stake recommendation to maximize long-run growth given accurate edge estimates Kelly Criterion definition at Investopedia.

Why fractional Kelly is commonly used

Full Kelly often produces large, volatile stakes because it assumes perfect probability estimates; many bettors adopt fractional Kelly, for example half-Kelly, to reduce variance and the risk that estimation error turns a positive expected edge into larger-than-desired drawdowns Kelly Criterion definition at Investopedia.

When the puck line is likely the better choice

Game characteristics that increase two-goal win probability

Situations that raise the true chance of a two-goal regulation win include clear roster or quality gaps, teams that sustain offensive pressure for long stretches, and late-game scenarios where an empty-net goal is likely, all of which increase the feasible paths to a -1.5 cover What Is the Puck Line in NHL Betting at Action Network.

Use cases: late-season mismatches, dominance metrics, empty-net situations

When advanced metrics and situational signs point to regulation dominance-such as possession advantage, shot control, and likely late empty-net attempts-the theoretical two-goal outcome probability can rise enough that the puck line's higher payout becomes the better EV play after a careful conversion to implied probability Implied probability definition at Investopedia. Funded Plays blog

Practice tip: try these signals in a simulated challenge or small virtual account to see how they play out over multiple games before increasing real stakes What Is the Puck Line in NHL Betting at Action Network. (Funded Plays evaluations)

Funded Plays Challenges

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When the moneyline is the smarter play

Scenarios favoring the win-probability boost of the moneyline

The moneyline often wins when a favorite is clearly the better single-game winner but lacks the two-goal upside; small favorites and matchups likely to be decided by one goal reward the moneyline's higher raw win probability, so converting those prices to implied probability and comparing EV will often favor the straight win market What Is the Puck Line in NHL Betting at Action Network.

How small favorites and OT-prone matchups change the math

Matchups that commonly reach overtime or shootouts reduce the value of a -1.5 puck-line wager because those extra-time outcomes eliminate the chance for a two-goal cover, making the moneyline's inclusion of OT and shootouts a material advantage in certain games NHL Official Rules 2024-25. NHL rules PDF

Consistently comparing implied probabilities and then computing EV keeps the process objective when choosing the market rather than relying on gut feel alone Implied probability definition at Investopedia.

Quick checklist: comparing implied probabilities and market prices

Step 1: convert odds

Convert American odds into implied probability using the standard formulas to get a consistent baseline for both moneyline and puck-line prices Implied probability definition at Investopedia.

Step 2: estimate true probabilities

Estimate the true probability of each outcome you care about, separating the moneyline win probability from the two-plus-goal regulation probability needed for a -1.5 cover; be conservative in your estimates and write down your assumptions Expected Value (EV) definition at Investopedia.

Step 3: compute EV

Compute EV for each market using your estimated probabilities and the market payouts, then choose the market with the higher EV when the difference justifies the risk, and remember to factor in OT and shootout effects on puck-line outcomes NHL Official Rules 2024-25.

Common mistakes and pitfalls with hockey betting lines

Ignoring OT/SO effects

A common error is to treat a moneyline win as interchangeable with a puck-line cover without adjusting for the fact that OT and shootouts add single-goal outcomes that often negate a -1.5 cover, which can turn an expected positive EV bet into a loss over time if not accounted for NHL Official Rules 2024-25.

Overstating confidence in probability estimates

Another frequent pitfall is overconfidence in your own probability estimates, which inflates Kelly-calculated stake sizes and increases the chance that estimation error produces outsized drawdowns; use fractional Kelly or reduced stakes if you lack strong historical validation Kelly Criterion definition at Investopedia.

Operational mistakes include failing to convert odds before comparison, ignoring market juice differences, and skipping a post-bet record of estimated probability versus actual outcome What Is the Puck Line in NHL Betting at Action Network.

Worked examples: converting odds, computing EV, and sizing a stake

Example A: favorite where puck line is tempting

Step 1: convert odds. Suppose a favorite's moneyline is -180 and the -1.5 puck line is +110; convert -180 to implied probability using the negative-odds formula: implied probability = 180 / (180 + 100) = 0.6429 or about 64.3% for the moneyline, and convert +110 as 100 / (110 + 100) = 0.4762 or about 47.6% as the puck-line implied chance of a two-plus-goal regulation win Implied probability definition at Investopedia.

Step 2: estimate true probabilities. If your model estimates the favorite's actual chance to win outright at 66% and the chance to win by two or more in regulation at 52%, you can now compute EV for each market using those estimates and each market's payout Expected Value (EV) definition at Investopedia.

Step 3: compute EV and size a stake. For the moneyline at -180, a $100 stake returns 100 * (0.66 * (100/180)) - (0.34 * 100) in net terms; for the puck line at +110, the EV = 110 * 0.52 - (1 * 0.48 * 100) when expressed per $100 equivalent. Compare both EVs to choose the market with the higher long-run return, then apply a fractional Kelly to the preferred market to calculate a practical stake Expected Value (EV) definition at Investopedia.

Example B: underdog moneyline vs +1.5 puck line

Convert odds, estimate true probabilities for the underdog to win outright and to lose by less than two, then compute EV for the +1.5 line and the moneyline; often the +1.5 will read as a safer play in implied-probability terms even if the pure moneyline payout looks attractive, but the EV comparison settles the decision Implied probability definition at Investopedia.

Apply Kelly sizing to the chosen market, then reduce the stake by a fraction such as half-Kelly to limit variance and protect the bankroll from estimation error Kelly Criterion definition at Investopedia.

Scenario walkthroughs: regulation dominance, empty-net endings, and OT risk

Regulation dominance: when teams press for two-goal wins

Teams that push late for a two-goal margin and sustain offensive pressure create real pathways to -1.5 covers, particularly when possession metrics and high-danger chances favor the offensive side; track those signals when deciding if the puck line is a legitimate EV play What Is the Puck Line in NHL Betting at Action Network.

Empty-net and late-game dynamics

Empty-net opportunities increase the probability of an extra goal differential late in the game, so bets placed with an eye on late-empty-net scenarios should explicitly account for that added pathway to a two-goal final margin What Is the Puck Line in NHL Betting at Action Network.

OT/SO-prone matchups

Matchups historically prone to overtime or shootouts reduce puck-line value and often favor the moneyline because the extra-time resolution typically cancels the possibility for a -1.5 cover; fold that matchup tendency into your true-probability estimates before computing EV NHL Official Rules 2024-25.

Practical tips: tools, trackers, and what to record

What metrics to track for future edges

Record the market odds, implied probability, your estimated true probability, EV, stake size, and the final result for each bet so you can evaluate which market selection process yields positive realized returns over time and refine your probability model accordingly Expected Value (EV) definition at Investopedia. Learn more about our approach at how Funded Plays evaluations work.

simple EV and odds tracker for each bet

Date
Market
Odds
Implied probability
Estimated probability
EV
Stake
Result

Keep entries brief

Simple spreadsheets or trackers to compute EV

A minimal spreadsheet that converts American odds to implied probability, multiplies probabilities by payouts to compute EV, and logs outcomes is often sufficient to validate strategy over dozens or hundreds of bets Implied probability definition at Investopedia.

What to record

Track moneyline and puck-line results separately so you can see whether one market consistently outperforms the other in your sample; over time this empirical log helps calibrate probability models and stake-sizing rules Expected Value (EV) definition at Investopedia.

Conclusion: a practical checklist and next steps

Short takeaway checklist

Convert both markets to implied probability, estimate the true probabilities you believe are realistic for the outcomes you care about, compute EV for each market, and choose the market with the higher justified EV while sizing the stake conservatively with fractional Kelly Implied probability definition at Investopedia.

How to practice without risking real bankrolls

Practice the full workflow in simulated environments or paper logs to validate your probability estimates and stake-sizing rules before committing significant capital; no approach removes risk, but disciplined records and fractional staking reduce the chance that noisy short-term results derail long-term plans Kelly Criterion definition at Investopedia. Visit Funded Plays.

Does a puck line include overtime and shootouts?

No. A standard -1.5 puck line requires a two-goal margin in regulation, so overtime and shootouts eliminate the possibility of a cover.

When should I use the moneyline instead of the puck line?

Use the moneyline when a favorite lacks a clear two-goal path or when matchups often go to OT or shootouts; compare implied probabilities and EV before deciding.

How should I size bets on puck lines?

Estimate your edge, compute Kelly to find a theoretical stake, then reduce it with a fractional Kelly to limit variance and account for estimation error.

Apply the three-step checklist-convert, estimate, compute EV-and use fractional Kelly for sizing to make more disciplined market choices. Practicing the workflow with small stakes or simulated accounts will improve your probability calibration and reduce unnecessary risk.