This guide explains how to judge whether a free bet is worth converting into cash. It covers the essential definitions, the expected value framework, a practical hedging formula, and realistic 2026 benchmarks so you can set personal decision rules. The article is written for sports enthusiasts and experienced bettors who want clear, repeatable steps to estimate net conversion while avoiding common execution errors. It highlights the regulatory and terms-based checks you must do before attempting any conversion.

A good conversion is context dependent but many traders treat roughly 70% net as a useful target under efficient conditions.

Stake-not-returned promotions return winnings only and require careful reading of expiry and market eligibility before hedging.

Even-money free bets often convert near 50% before costs, while medium-to-higher odds tend to produce higher conversion if liquidity and fees allow.

What a free bet actually is: definition and regulatory context

In many markets a "free bet" commonly appears as a stake-not-returned promotion, meaning that if the selection wins only the winnings are credited and the promotional stake itself is not returned. This distinction is central to any free bet conversion attempt and should be part of your initial check when you evaluate offers like bonus bets or match promos, because it changes the expected cash you can extract from a successful selection. DraftKings help center explanation of Bonus Bets

Regulators and advertising authorities also require that significant terms are presented prominently so consumers are not misled, which affects how operators describe stake treatment, expiry and eligibility. That regulatory emphasis means advertisers must make conditions clear, and as a practical reader you should expect to find stake-not-returned wording and expiry details up front. Advertising Standards Authority guidance on free bets and bonuses

What practical conversion rate should I expect when I try to convert a stake-not-returned free bet?

A practical target is around 70% net under efficient conditions, but the actual result depends on stake treatment, expiry, eligible markets, liquidity and commission; always verify terms and model fees before attempting conversion.

Understanding the stake-not-returned feature matters because it reduces the raw cash you receive from a winning free bet compared with returning the stake, and it therefore changes the conversion math you will use when hedging the opposite outcome. For a simple example, a winning stake-not-returned free bet at even money returns only the net winnings, not the stake itself, and that lowers the immediate cash available for lay coverage or rebalancing. FanDuel explanation of Bonus Bets

Key terms and stakes: what to check in the fine print

Before attempting any conversion, confirm the stake treatment line by line. Look for explicit language about whether the promotional stake is returned, how winnings post, and any conditions tied to the offer. These clauses are the foundation for calculating the expected cash you can hope to realize from the promotion. Advertising Standards Authority guidance on free bets and bonuses

Expiry and time limits are the second most important factor. Short expiry windows or one-time-use constraints can materially reduce practical options to hedge, since you may have only a narrow window to locate a matching market or sufficient liquidity to lay on an exchange. When expiry is tight, the operational risk of failing to execute a hedge rises quickly.

Check market eligibility and minimum odds. Operators commonly restrict which markets count for a promotion and may require bets at or above a minimum price. Those rules change which hedges are available and whether exchange liquidity exists for the opposite outcome, which in turn changes achievable conversion rates.

Close up of a simple calculator beside a sports odds board showing numeric odds and a hedging calculation concept in a minimalist Funded Plays style free bet converter

Account and market-level fees, such as exchange commission or transaction costs, also matter. Many conversion strategies rely on laying the opposite outcome on a peer-to-peer exchange or using a third-party market; any commission or spread reduces the attainable net conversion. Where possible, factor estimated commission into your early calculations before committing time to an execution.

The math: expected value and the hedged conversion framework

Expected value is the right conceptual tool to assess a bonus bet because it weights all outcomes by their probabilities and cash outcomes, making clear what you can reasonably expect from repeated use of the same promotion. Use EV to compare alternatives and to set a personal minimum conversion threshold. OpenStax page on expected value

For stake-not-returned bonuses a practical hedged conversion approximation that many traders and exchange guides use is stake times (odds - 1) divided by odds, which gives the theoretical cash you can lock in before fees when you offset the opposite outcome. This simple formula assumes you can lay at the corresponding probability and ignore timing slippage and commissions; treat it as a starting point rather than a guaranteed result. Smarkets guide to turning free bets into cash OddsShopper free bet calculator

estimate net conversion from a stake-not-returned free bet

Works before slippage or lay spread

Keep in mind the approximation above omits several real costs: exchange commission on winnings or laid amounts, differing lay prices compared with theoretical probabilities, and slippage when liquidity is thin. Each of these factors reduces the net conversion, so include conservative margins when you move from theoretical conversion toward an execution plan. Smarkets guide to turning free bets into cash

free bet converter

A pragmatic "free bet converter" approach applies the hedged formula with explicit inputs for stake, back odds and estimated lay commission, and then reports the net conversion percentage. That same small calculation helps you decide quickly whether to proceed. Use the calculator idea above to test different odds levels and commission scenarios before making a trade. OddsJam bonus bet conversion how Funded Plays evaluations work

Worked example, minimal algebra: suppose you have a 10 unit stake, a back decimal price of 2.0 and you plan to lay the opposite outcome at fair exchange prices with zero commission for the demonstration. The simple hedged conversion calculation gives 10*(2.0-1)/2.0 = 5 units, meaning a theoretical 50% conversion before any fees or slippage. This example illustrates why even-money offers are less attractive than higher odds when you try to convert a stake-not-returned free bet. OpenStax page on expected value

When you add a realistic exchange commission or a lay price worse than fair probability the net conversion can fall below the theoretical figure, which is why many experienced converters target higher decimal odds or accept smaller stakes to improve execution flexibility. Plan conservatively and allow a buffer for commission when you decide whether a given free bet is worth converting.

Practical benchmarks: what conversion rates are realistic in 2026

Exchange-based guides and practical operator education commonly report that medium-to-higher decimal odds, roughly in the 3.0 to 6.0 range, typically allow conversion rates that land somewhere near 65% to 80% when hedged efficiently, subject to liquidity and commission constraints. These benchmarks are useful as targets but remember they rely on efficient execution and favorable market conditions. Smarkets guide to turning free bets into cash

Funded Plays Challenges page

Run a practice calculation

By contrast, even-money free bets tend to yield figures closer to 50% before costs, because the stake-not-returned treatment halves the immediate cash available to cover the lay. As odds increase, the share of winnings relative to the stake improves the raw conversion number; this is the arithmetic reason traders prefer higher quoted odds for conversion attempts. Smarkets guide to turning free bets into cash

Commission and exchange spreads alter the practical benchmarks. If an exchange charges a significant commission, or if the lay market has wide spreads, the achievable net conversion shifts downward; a 75% theoretical conversion can become 60% or lower after fees. Always estimate the commission impact before treating a benchmark as realistic for your situation.

Minimalist 2D vector checklist of five icons representing stake treatment expiry eligible markets commission and liquidity on a dark Funded Plays background free bet converter

Liquidity matters too. Benchmarks assume you can execute the required lay at or close to the expected price; where liquidity is thin you may face partial fills or have to accept worse prices, which reduces the realized conversion. If a market lacks depth, the conversion math can break down quickly and the operation may not be worthwhile.

A decision checklist: when a conversion is 'good enough' for you

Start with a short, structured checklist to decide whether to pursue conversion: confirm stake treatment, check expiry, check eligible markets, estimate net conversion after fees, and compare the estimated return to your time and effort threshold. That sequence helps avoid common operational mistakes. Advertising Standards Authority guidance on prominent terms

Set a personal minimum conversion threshold. As a practical rule many traders aim near a 70% net conversion target where feasible, but your own threshold should reflect the time you spend, the size of the stake, and acceptable execution risk. A target like 70% is a heuristic not a promise, and in many constrained situations a lower threshold may still be acceptable for small stakes or practice runs. Smarkets guide to turning free bets into cash

Estimate net conversion conservatively. Run the hedged calculation including a commission estimate and a small slippage allowance. If your net projection remains above your personal threshold, proceed; if it falls below, skip the conversion or look for a better market opportunity.

Factor in opportunity cost and bankroll equivalence. Treat the free bet as a small, conditional contribution to your broader bankroll strategy. If the time and effort required to convert a single small bonus are disproportionately large relative to expected net return, that should push you toward skipping the conversion in favor of other activities that improve your core edge. Funded Plays

Common mistakes and pitfalls when converting free bets

Omitting exchange commission or lay liability from initial calculations is a frequent and costly error. Theoretical conversions that ignore commission often look attractive until execution, at which point net return can be marginal or negative. Always model commission into the calculation up front. Smarkets practical guide

Mismatching markets or violating promotional terms is another major pitfall. If an operator denies a conversion because the market was ineligible or because a minimum odds rule was breached you may lose the promotional value altogether. Read the terms and stick to eligible markets only.

Chasing low-liquidity lines or placing large lay liabilities in thin markets introduces slippage and partial fills, which erode conversion. When liquidity is thin either reduce the size of the conversion or accept the lower expected conversion as a cost of poor execution conditions.

Behavioural traps include overbetting because a promotion feels like free money and failing to account for the small, repeated edge erosion that commission and spreads produce. Treat each conversion attempt as an execution task with measurable costs rather than as a risk-free gain.

Step-by-step examples and scenarios

Example 1: even-money free bet hedged on an exchange, base case. Inputs: 10 unit free bet, back decimal odds 2.0, exchange lay at fair price with 2% commission on net winnings, and negligible slippage. Hedging steps: calculate theoretical conversion 10*(2.0-1)/2.0 = 5 units; subtract estimated commission on exchange profits, here roughly 2% of the laid net winnings, leaving an approximate net conversion of 4.9 units or 49% net. This demonstrates why even-money offers often sit near the 50% theoretical mark before additional costs. OpenStax on expected value

Practice a free bet conversion calculation

Try a short practice calculation using your own stake and a conservative commission estimate to see whether a specific free bet meets your minimum threshold.

Run a practice calculation

Example 1, tightened expiry and thin liquidity. Re-run the same inputs but assume the lay market has thin depth and you accept a 3% slippage on the lay price, plus the 2% commission. The realized lay price moves against you and the net conversion can fall materially, perhaps into the low 40 percent range, showing how execution conditions change outcomes even for simple, even-money examples. Smarkets practical guide

Example 2: higher-odds free bet with lay costs and short expiry. Inputs: 10 unit free bet, back decimal odds 4.0, planned lay at close probability with 3% commission, and modest slippage. The basic hedged conversion gives 10*(4.0-1)/4.0 = 7.5 units or 75% before costs. Subtract commission and slippage to get a realistic net conversion in the 65% to 72% band depending on execution quality, which illustrates why medium-to-higher odds tend to deliver better net conversion when conditions are favorable. Smarkets guide to turning free bets into cash

Rerun Example 2 with worse liquidity or a higher commission and you can see conversion dip below your personal threshold quickly. That sensitivity shows the value of running at least two scenarios for each offer: an optimistic execution case and a conservative one that includes higher commission and slippage assumptions.

Practical replication steps for readers: 1) capture the exact promotional terms, 2) choose the target market and note minimum odds, 3) estimate lay price and commission, 4) compute hedged conversion with the calculator approach above, and 5) decide based on your personal threshold. These numbered steps let you convert the narrative examples into a repeatable workflow for small practice stakes or real offers. Regulatory guidance reminder Visit the Funded Plays blog for related walkthroughs.

Conclusion: practical next steps and safe expectations

In practical terms a "good" free bet conversion in 2026 commonly sits near a 70% net conversion when hedged efficiently under favorable odds, liquidity and commission conditions, but this is context dependent and will be lower when restrictions or fees bite. Use that 70% figure as a target heuristic rather than a guarantee and always verify the operator terms before attempting conversion. Smarkets practical benchmarks

Key next steps: verify stake treatment and expiry, confirm eligible markets and minimum odds, run the hedged calculation including commission, and compare the projected net conversion with your time and effort threshold. Practice the steps on small stakes or mock exercises until you can execute cleanly and within promotional rules. Remember that conversions depend on market conditions and operator terms; they are not guaranteed outcomes and require disciplined execution. Advertising Standards Authority guidance

What does stake-not-returned mean for a free bet?

Stake-not-returned means the promotional stake is not returned when a selection wins, only the net winnings are credited, which lowers the cash available for hedging.

Is a 70% conversion realistic for every free bet?

No, 70% is a common target under favorable odds, liquidity and commission conditions; actual conversion can be lower when constraints apply.

Should I always hedge a free bet on an exchange?

Hedging is a common method but depends on market eligibility, liquidity and commission; if these are poor it may be better to skip conversion.

If you frequently evaluate promotions, build the hedged calculation into a quick checklist you can run in minutes. Treat each conversion attempt as a trading execution with costs and rules to respect. Responsible participation matters: conversions depend on market conditions and operator terms, not guaranteed returns. Use small practice stakes until you are comfortable with execution and compliance.