If you re in a football squares pool, the numbers you end up with matter more than many players realize. This guide explains football pool how does it work in plain terms, then shows which last digits tend to win and why that happens. Readers will find clear pick priorities, simple tactics for buying or trading squares, and a one-page checklist to bring to workplace pools. The goal is to help you make choices that improve your expected outcomes without promising any single-game win.

Modern full-season analyses show digits 0, 7, 3 and 4 appear most often in final-score last digits.

0-0 is consistently the single best square; 7-0 and 3-0 follow closely.

Weighting picks by historical frequency raises long-run hit chances, but does not guarantee wins in any single game.

What a football pool (squares) is and why last digits matter

Basic rules of a squares pool - football pool how does it work

A squares pool is a simple grid game people use for football matches. Players buy or claim cells on a 10 by 10 grid that maps the last digit of one team on the rows and the other team on the columns. When the game ends, the winners are the players whose cell matches the final score last digits for each team. This structure is why last-digit frequencies matter to anyone asking football pool how does it work in practice. For a clear, practical ruleset and a common grid example, see the ESPN explainer ESPN explainer.

Most pools pay out for results at the end of each quarter, at halftime, and for the final score, so one square can win multiple times or different people can win different payout periods. The grid is usually filled either by letting participants pick any open square or by assigning squares randomly after players buy them on Funded Plays. The way numbers get assigned is a practical detail that shapes which strategy makes sense for each participant.

Below is a simple example grid to orient beginners: a player picks row 0 and column 7 which corresponds to the home team final-digit 0 and away team final-digit 7. If a quarter or final ends with those last digits, that square wins the relevant prize. Pools may vary rules for overtime, tie handling, and whether numbers are redrawn; always check the house rules before you pick.

Use the checklist to pick smarter squares

Use the checklist later in this article to quickly compare your pool rules and decide whether to prioritize top digits or seek trades.

Open the checklist

How final-score last digits determine winners

Because only the last digit of each team s score matters, long-run win rates depend on which last digits appear most often. That makes frequency data useful for informed picks, especially in regular group pools and office contests. When people ask about football squares strategy, they are really asking how to tilt long-run probability in their favor by preferring digits that appear more often in full-season data.

How football pool scoring works in practice

Assigning numbers: random draw versus choice

In many casual pools the grid is sold first and numbers are assigned later by a random draw, so each player s chance is near uniform until the draw happens. In other pools players choose their squares after the numbers are revealed, so skill and timing matter. If you can pick after numbers are assigned, you can prioritize known high-frequency digits. If numbers are randomized, your strategy should shift to buying multiple squares or seeking trades to increase exposure to favorable pairs.

Payout structures vary: some pools pay each quarter equally, others give larger shares to the final. This affects which squares are most valuable. When quarters all pay equally, consistent digit coverage across quarters is more valuable. If the final carries most of the prize, prioritize squares that historically appear more often in later-quarter outcomes. Also confirm whether overtime counts toward final-digit results in your pool, since that rule changes how some late-game digits might appear.

The data story: which last digits appear most often

Modern-era findings: top digits

Recent, full-season analyses of modern NFL scoring consistently show that last digits 0, 7, 3 and 4 occur most often in final-score digits, so squares built from those digits tend to win more frequently than random expectation. For a recent compiled view of modern-era weights and rankings, see The Power Rank analysis The Power Rank analysis.

What are the best numbers to pick in a football squares pool, and why?

Prefer squares containing digits 0, 7, 3 and 4, prioritize 0-0 if you can only pick one, and use modern full-season frequency data to weight purchases or trades; expect better long-run odds but no guaranteed single-game wins.

Those same studies also show that digits like 8 and 1 are generally weaker on average, which helps explain why many experienced players avoid those columns except for strategic reasons tied to a specific pool s payout timing.

Why some digits dominate

Some digits appear more often because common scoring plays line up to end in certain digits. Field goals, touchdowns plus extra points, and combinations of safeties and two-point plays produce repeating patterns in last digits across seasons. Modern analyses aggregate full-season game results to reveal those patterns, and using that evidence can provide a modest long-run edge when choosing squares.

Which specific square pairs are most valuable

Top-tier pairs (0-0, 0-7, 3-0, etc.)

The single most favorable square across compiled datasets remains 0-0, with 7-0 and 0-7 and 3-0 and 0-3 close behind. These rankings appear consistently in multi-source reviews and modern-summary articles that combine full-season NFL data, so they form a reliable starting list for pick priorities. For a detailed classic ranking and explanation of why 0-0 often leads, review the FiveThirtyEight feature FiveThirtyEight feature.

Funded Plays Challenges

Open the checklist

After the top tier, a strong second group includes pairs with 4 combined with 0 or 7, and matchups like 7-3 and 3-7. Combinations that include 8 or 1 tend to be lower priority because those digits show weaker frequency in modern datasets. That ranking helps readers asking what are the best numbers to get in a football pool to make quick, data-driven choices when their selection options are limited.

Second-tier and less reliable pairs

Second-tier pairs provide reasonable coverage if you cannot secure a top-tier square. Those include 4-0 and 4-7 combinations and mirrored pairs that include one top digit and one mid-digit. Less reliable pairs often involve 1 or 8 on either axis; they still hit sometimes, but their long-run frequency is lower, so they usually rank behind the combinations above.

How probabilities change by quarter and why timing matters

Quarter-by-quarter digit shifts

Close up of highlighted squares on a paper grid with a pen and coffee cup in a neat office pool setup showing selections and strategy for football pool how does it work

Digit frequencies are not uniform across quarters. Early quarters, especially Q1, more strongly favor zeros and sevens, so a square that looks very strong for Q1 may be less likely to win in Q4. The uneven quarter profile is a consistent feature noted in modern analyses and helps explain why some players prefer certain squares if their pool pays each quarter separately. See the FiveThirtyEight discussion for more on quarter-by-quarter effects FiveThirtyEight discussion.

Late-game dynamics and variance

Late quarters have more scoring patterns that introduce variance: teams attempt two-point conversions, stretch drives for single-point margins, and field goals play a larger role in final-score endings. Those dynamics raise the chance that relatively less-common digits show up late, which slightly lifts the value of digits like 2, 5, 6 and 9 in Q3 and Q4 compared with Q1. For probability tables, see SuperBowlsquares.org.

Why recent rule changes matter: the post-2015 scoring environment

Extra-point distance and two-point trends

The 2015 rule change moving the extra-point kick further back and subsequent strategic increases in two-point attempts have nudged last-digit frequencies. Analysts note that digits such as 2, 5, 6 and 9 are more viable now than in pre-2015 samples, especially in late-game scoring, though the overall advantage of top digits like 0 and 7 remains. For a succinct explanation of how these shifts influence digit relevance, see the Action Network guide Action Network guide.

Those changes are modest but worth considering when you use seasonal modern-era data to pick numbers rather than relying on older conventions set before the rule shift.

How to use weighting and historical frequencies when you pick numbers

Baseline random chance versus weighted picks

A single square has a baseline, random chance of hitting a quarter of roughly 4 percent, assuming digits are equally likely. Using historical weights based on modern full-season data can raise an elite pair s chance to hit at least one quarter to roughly 5 to 7 percent in contemporary models. That improvement is meaningful over many games but does not guarantee a hit for any single match. For an example of weighted versus random outcomes, see The Power Rank analysis of modern weights The Power Rank analysis.

Quick weighted-hit chance estimate for a single square

Estimates probability a square hits at least once per game

Simple weighting methods you can use

Weighted approaches are simple: prioritize buying or trading into squares that pair two high-frequency digits, trade away squares with low-frequency digits, or buy additional squares when rules allow. A practical spreadsheet can compute the estimated chance your set of squares will hit at least once in a game using the tool spec above. Remember that weighting raises long-run odds but does not change the fact that any single game is still affected by luck and variance.

Super Bowl-only data versus full-season NFL data: which should you use

Sample-size and noise in Super Bowl-only histories

Super Bowl-only samples are small and therefore noisy, so rankings based solely on Super Bowl history can mislead. Modern guidance prefers league-wide full-season data because it provides more stable estimates of digit frequency and better reflects regular scoring patterns. For a discussion comparing Super Bowl samples to full-season data, see The Power Rank review The Power Rank review.

Why full-season modern-era data is preferable

Full-season datasets reduce sampling noise and are updated for the modern scoring environment. That makes them the preferred basis for choosing numbers in most pools, especially when you want a strategy that holds up across many games rather than a single championship match.

Picking numbers in group pools: trades, splits and practical tactics

How to negotiate trades or swaps

When trading in a group pool, focus on consolidating top-tier pairs into as few owners as possible. Offer a fair split of expected future value, or propose swapping a weaker square plus a small cash or future favor for a stronger pair. Keep trades simple, use the checklist below for quick comparisons, and document any agreement so there is no confusion after the game. For more, see our evaluations blog post how-fundedplays-evaluations-work.

Sharing strategy with coworkers or friends

If you share a square across multiple people, decide before the game how payouts will be split by quarter. A common approach is to split quarter payments proportionally by perceived value, but simple equal splits are fine when stakes are low. Track which digits others hold to avoid redundant exposure if you prefer to diversify your group s holdings.

Common mistakes and pitfalls to avoid

Avoid overfitting to a single game or a small sample like one Super Bowl. Small-sample bias leads people to favor anecdotes over season-wide patterns and that often reduces expected returns from a data-driven approach. Stick with season-based evidence when ranking digits unless you have a pool rule that specifically makes a single game s context unique. See the analysis at Variance Explained.

Do not assume a weighted pick guarantees a hit. Variance is large in any single game, so even top pairs can go cold for a week. Also double-check pool rules such as whether overtime counts, whether numbers are redrawn, and whether quarter payments differ. These operational details change the practical value of any given square.

Practical examples: three real-world pick scenarios

Scenario A: Solo player picking one square

If you only get one square, prefer 0-0 when available, as it is the single best cell across compiled datasets. If 0-0 is taken, prioritize 7-0 or 3-0. The choice reduces expected regret and aligns with the long-run evidence rather than a gut feeling about a single matchup.

Scenario B: Office pool with trades

In an office pool that allows trading, identify who holds top-tier squares and negotiate to combine them into fewer hands. Offer to trade a low-frequency pair plus a small split of any future quarter payout to obtain a stronger pair. Prioritize squares that perform well across multiple quarters if your pool pays each period equally.

Scenario C: Weighted buying strategy

If you can buy multiple squares, focus purchases on combinations of 0, 7, 3 and 4, and use a simple weighted spreadsheet to estimate coverage odds. Buying two or three squares that pair top digits increases the chance of at least one hit across the four quarters more than spreading the same budget over many weak combinations.

A quick pick checklist and decision framework

One-page checklist: prefer digits 0, 7, 3, 4; take 0-0 if you have one choice; check whether overtime counts; prioritize squares that work across multiple quarters if payouts are equal; trade or buy extra squares to consolidate top-digit exposure. This short framework helps you act quickly in workplace or last-minute pools.

When to accept a low-frequency digit: consider it only if it improves your overall coverage, if you can split potential payouts cheaply, or if the pool s payout structure makes a late-quarter variant especially valuable. Otherwise, stick with top-digit pairs for consistent, long-run performance.

Responsible expectations: variance, luck and long-run thinking

No strategy guarantees a win. Weighting and good picks raise your long-run probability but do not eliminate variance. Treat pools as entertainment where better choices improve expected outcomes over many games, and avoid treating a single win or loss as complete evidence that a strategy is correct or flawed.

Track results across games to see whether your selections align with expected trends; see the Funded Plays blog. As scoring patterns and rules evolve, update your assumptions and adapt your checklist accordingly.

Minimalist 2D vector bar chart showing relative frequency of last digits 0 7 3 4 versus others in Funded Plays dark palette football pool how does it work

Conclusion: a simple rule for picking winning-friendly numbers

Prefer squares that include digits 0, 7, 3 and 4, prioritize 0-0 if you only get one pick, and use modern full-season data to weight choices rather than relying on small Super Bowl samples. Post-2015 rule changes make digits such as 2, 5, 6 and 9 slightly more relevant in late quarters, but they do not overturn the advantage of the top digits. See NFL scores.

Apply the checklist in group pools, use simple weighting if you can buy multiple squares, and keep expectations realistic: strategy improves odds, but luck still decides single games.

How many squares should I buy to meaningfully increase my odds?

Buying more squares increases your probability of covering favorable digit combinations, but the benefit depends on the pool size and budget. Focus purchases on top-digit pairs for the best marginal improvement.

Do Super Bowl squares use different rules than regular-season pools?

Rules can vary, but Super Bowl pools often follow the same last-digit logic. Avoid relying on Super Bowl-only historical patterns because the sample is small and noisier than full-season data.

Should overtime count for final-digit payouts?

That is a house rule. Decide before the contest whether overtime counts, since including overtime can change which digits are slightly more likely in final outcomes.

Use the checklist and the simple weighting ideas here to make faster, more evidence-based trades and purchases in your next pool. Keep tracking results across games so you can adapt as scoring trends evolve. Remember that even the best picks only shift probabilities; pools are still subject to luck and short-term variance.