A football money line is one of the simplest markets to understand once you know how American odds work. This guide walks through the essential concepts you need to read odds, convert them to implied probabilities, compute payouts, and account for bookmaker margin. Designed for U.S. sports fans and anyone who wants a practical explainer, the article balances beginner-friendly definitions with step-by-step examples you can use on NFL or college slates. It focuses on disciplined comparisons of your probability estimates to market prices rather than on hype.

A football money line is a straight bet on the game winner, with negative odds for favorites and positive odds for underdogs.

Convert American odds to implied probability using two standard formulas, then remove the vig for fair comparisons.

Payouts include the original stake; a $100 bet at +150 returns $250 total and $150 net profit.

What is a football money line?

A football money line is a straight wager on which team will win the game outright, with no margin required; negative American odds indicate the favorite and positive odds indicate the underdog, and the same mechanics apply across NFL and college football markets Investopedia moneyline definition.

The money line differs from other common markets because it prices the winner only, not the margin of victory or combined points; this makes it a simple choice when you expect a team to finish with the win regardless of how many points they score.

Funded Plays Challenges

Explore FundedPlays Challenges

Because moneylines use American odds formatting, readers will often see examples like -150 for a favorite and +150 for an underdog; understanding that sign and the payout logic is the first practical step.

Quick definition

In short, a moneyline bet picks the game winner outright. Moneyline odds are expressed in American odds and indicate either how much you must risk to win a set profit on favorites or how much profit you receive on a standard stake for underdogs Action Network moneyline explainer.

Why the money line matters

For many bettors and sports predictors, the moneyline is the natural market when the main expectation is a win rather than a margin; it also simplifies outcome modeling because a single binary result determines the payoff.

How to read football money line odds

Reading moneyline odds is mostly a matter of sign and scale: a negative line like -150 shows the favorite and tells you how much you must risk to profit $100, while a positive line like +150 shows the underdog and tells you how much profit a $100 stake would earn DraftKings Playbook moneyline payouts.

Signs and what they mean

A -150 moneyline means you must risk $150 to win $100; a +150 moneyline means a $100 risk returns $150 profit, and both conventions are standard across U.S. football markets.

Practical stake/profit examples

Put simply: stake $100 at +150 and your net profit is $150, for a total return of $250 including your stake; conversely, on -150 you must risk $150 to earn $100 profit, with the total return being the original stake plus winnings Investopedia payout example.

Close up mobile screen showing a football money line readout with -150 and +150 while a hand writes quick payout math on paper against a minimalist dark branded background

When you see moneyline notation on a board, translate it into two quick checks: what sign is shown and how that relates to the stake you plan to place; practicing with small examples helps make the conversions automatic.

Converting a football money line to implied probability

Implied probability turns American moneyline odds into a market break-even chance, using two standard formulas depending on the sign; for negative odds, p = -A/(-A + 100), and for positive odds, p = 100/(A + 100), which gives you the implied percentage the market assigns to that outcome Investopedia implied probability. Tools such as Omnicalculator also provide quick converters to check your math.

Working through conversions helps you compare your own estimated chances with market prices rather than relying on raw odds alone.

What is a moneyline in football and how do I convert those odds into a probability I can compare to my own estimate?

A moneyline is a straight bet on which team wins the game; convert American odds to implied probability using the standard formulas for negative and positive odds, normalize for vigorish, and compare the result to your estimated chance to identify potential value.

As a quick worked example, convert a -150 favorite and a +130 underdog: for -150, implied probability is calculated as 150 divided by 250, or 0.60 (60 percent); for +130, use 100 divided by 230, which is about 0.435 (approximately 43.5 percent) when expressed as a percentage Action Network moneyline.

Formulas for American odds

Keep the two formulas at hand: for negative American odds use p = (-A)/(-A + 100) and for positive odds use p = 100/(A + 100). These are standard conversions used to translate moneylines into break-even chances in both NFL and college markets Investopedia implied probability. See the Boyds Bets conversion chart for an alternate reference table.

Step-by-step conversion example

Step 1, pick the odds you want to convert; step 2, apply the correct formula based on the sign; step 3, express the result as a percentage and compare to your estimated probability to see whether the market seems to offer value Action Network conversion steps.

Football money line payouts: math and examples

Payout math follows directly from the American-odds convention: a $100 stake at +150 returns $150 profit for a $250 total, while a -150 line requires a $150 stake to win $100 profit, and these payout rules are consistent across NFL and college football contexts Investopedia payouts. You can also check a dedicated odds converter like Covers' odds converter for quick checks.

Typical payout scenarios

Example scenarios: a $100 bet on +150 yields $150 net profit and $250 total return; a successful $150 bet on -150 yields $100 net profit and $250 total return; both examples show how the original stake is always included in the total payout.

How returned money is calculated

Remember to separate net profit and total return: net profit is the amount you pocket beyond your stake, while total return is the stake plus net profit; computing both helps you track performance and bankroll changes precisely DraftKings Playbook payout explanation.

When practicing payout math, write the stake, the advertised odds, and then compute profit and total return so you get comfortable with both positive and negative conventions. See more examples on the Funded Plays blog.

Football money line vs point spread and totals

These markets price different things: moneylines price the outright winner, point spreads price the margin of victory, and totals price the combined points scored by both teams; choosing between them depends on whether you expect a win, a margin, or a points outcome American Gaming Association glossary.

Convert American moneyline odds to implied probabilities and compare two lines

Use this to check value without vig

If you expect a team to win regardless of margin, a moneyline is often simpler and cleaner; if you think the margin matters or you prefer a points market, consider spreads or totals instead.

What each market prices

Use moneylines when your model produces a clear outright favorite or when you like a small underdog to win; use spreads when your edge relates to how much a team will win by, and use totals when your view is about scoring levels rather than winners Action Network market comparison.

When a money line makes more sense

Typical moneyline scenarios: you trust a favorite to win but are unsure about margin, you anticipate an outright upset and prefer the larger payout for underdogs, or your model gives a higher outright win probability than the market implies after removing vig.

How vigorish affects football money line prices

Bookmakers include a margin called vigorish or vig, which pushes the summed implied probabilities for both sides above 100 percent; recognizing this overround is essential because raw implied probabilities from posted odds overstate the true fair chances Investopedia vigorish.

What the vig or overround is

The vig is the bookmaker margin embedded in prices; when you convert both sides to implied probabilities and add them, the total typically exceeds 100 percent because the sportsbook builds in a fee to cover costs and ensure a profit.

How and why to remove the vig for fair comparison

To get normalized probabilities, divide each side's implied probability by the sum of both implied probabilities; the resulting figures are the vig-adjusted probabilities you can compare to your own estimate to assess value Investopedia normalization.

Even a small bookmaker margin can change the comparison outcome, so normalizing before judging value is a practical step for disciplined decision-making.

When to choose a football money line

Decide on a moneyline when your confidence is primarily about which team will win outright, when the underdog size offers a payout that matches your assessed chance, and when the variance fits your bankroll plan Action Network choice guide.

Practice converting odds with structured challenges on the FundedPlays challenges page

Try converting a few posted lines to implied probability and compare them to your own estimates to see where you might have an edge.

Explore FundedPlays Challenges

Checklist items include confirming your probability estimate, normalizing for vig, checking how a potential stake affects your bankroll volatility, and comparing multiple bookmakers or price sources for the best line. Learn more about Funded Plays evaluations.

Decision criteria and checklist

Simple checklist: 1) Is your estimated win probability higher than the vig-adjusted implied probability? 2) Does the stake size fit your bankroll rules? 3) Would you accept the expected variance of an underdog win? Following these steps keeps decisions disciplined and repeatable DraftKings Playbook decision notes.

Bankroll and risk notes

Moneyline plays, especially underdogs, carry higher variance so adjust stake sizes accordingly; use your standard staking plan and avoid overcommitting based on short-term outcomes.

Common mistakes with football money line bets

Avoid misreading signs, confusing net profit with total payout, and using spread thinking when you mean to bet the winner; these notation errors are basic but frequent and costly if not checked Investopedia common errors.

Reading errors and notation slips

Quick fixes: always convert the advertised line into a stake-versus-profit example before placing the bet, and double-check that a negative sign means you must risk more than your target profit rather than less.

Ignoring vig and value

Common oversight: comparing raw implied probabilities across books without removing the vig; always normalize the probabilities first so you compare fair prices rather than inflated market figures Investopedia vig note.

Habit checks to avoid mistakes: recalculate implied probability, write both net and total returns before confirming a bet, and confirm the market type to ensure you are not mixing spreads and moneylines.

Worked examples: NFL and college football money line scenarios

Example 1, NFL: suppose Team A is -165 and Team B is +145. Convert Team A to implied probability using the negative formula: 165 divided by 265 gives about 62.3 percent. Team B at +145 converts to 100 divided by 245, about 40.8 percent; note that summing these implied percentages exceeds 100 because of the vig, so normalize before comparing to your own estimate Action Network example.

NFL example: step-by-step math

Step 1: read the posted odds. Step 2: convert each to implied probability using the correct formula. Step 3: add implied probabilities to measure overround. Step 4: normalize each probability by dividing by the total overround. Step 5: compare the normalized probability to your estimated chance of the outcome; if your estimate is higher, the market may offer value.

When you also compute payout, confirm how much you would win: a $100 bet on the +145 underdog would return $245 total and $145 net profit, while betting the -165 favorite requires a $165 stake to win $100 net, which clarifies the risk-reward for each side Investopedia payouts. See Funded Plays.

College example and transferability

Example 2, college football: the same formulas and payout math apply. If a college favorite is -210, its implied probability is 210 divided by 310, or about 67.7 percent; the mechanics do not change between NFL and college lines, only the specific odds you see on a given slate Action Network mechanics.

The practical takeaway is that your conversion workflow is portable across leagues: read the odds, convert to implied probability, normalize for vig, compare to your estimate, and compute payout obligations before staking funds.

Summary: key takeaways about the football money line

Moneyline bets choose the outright winner; negative American odds mark favorites and positive odds mark underdogs, and the same conventions hold across NFL and college football Investopedia summary.

Always convert odds to implied probability and remove the vig before judging value, and practice with worked examples until the conversions and payout math are second nature Investopedia vig.

How do I convert a negative moneyline to implied probability?

For negative American odds, divide the absolute value of the odds by that value plus 100; express the result as a percentage to get the implied probability.

Does the same moneyline math apply to NFL and college football?

Yes, American odds, implied probability conversions, and payout rules work the same across both NFL and college football markets.

What is vigorish and why does it matter?

Vigorish, or vig, is the bookmaker margin that causes summed implied probabilities to exceed 100 percent; removing it gives normalized probabilities for fair value comparisons.

Practicing the conversion and payout steps on real lines will build speed and reduce mistakes. Use the worked examples here as templates: read the odds, convert to implied probability, normalize for vig, and then check whether your estimate suggests value before placing a stake. If you want a structured place to practice forecasting and measuring performance without wagering with real money, consider exploring skill-based challenge platforms that let you test prediction workflows with virtual funded accounts.