This article explains how to bet the under in a practical, rules-aware way. It focuses on settlement conventions, how to interpret odds, model-driven projections, and disciplined staking so you can make measured decisions rather than following simple rules of thumb. You will find a step-by-step workflow, sport-specific notes, common mistakes to avoid, and suggestions for tools and simple models. The goal is to help you build a repeatable process that emphasizes checking operator rules, documenting assumptions, and managing stake size responsibly.

An under wins when combined scoring finishes below the posted total and pushes return the stake.

Always confirm whether the market includes overtime or extra time before you place a totals wager.

Use documented projections and disciplined staking, such as fractional Kelly, rather than blanket heuristics.

What bet the under means and how totals settle

To bet the under is to place a totals wager that wins when the combined scoring in a game finishes below the posted number, and returns the stake if the result lands exactly on that total as a push, a standard description in basic industry guides Sports Betting 101.

Settlement conventions vary by sport and operator and directly affect whether a totals wager resolves as an under, over, or push. For example, many U.S. sportsbook house rules specify that football and basketball totals include overtime, while standard soccer totals settle on 90 minutes plus injury time unless the market states otherwise, so confirming the market-specific house rule is a required step before you place a wager Sportsbook House Rules.

Because those settlement notes are not universal, do not assume a totals market will settle the same way across platforms. Read the market notes and the sportsbook help center before you act; the operator rule will determine the ticket outcome in cases that go beyond regulation time Sportsbook Rules. You can also consult other operators for comparison, for example Fanatics house rules.

Quick settlement checklist for totals markets

Sport
Settlement type
Overtime included

Confirm house rules for the chosen market

Practical example language helps: when reviewing a ticket look for explicit phrases like include overtime, regulation only, or 90 minutes plus injury time. If the note is unclear, contact the operator or avoid the market. Clear settlement understanding prevents surprise pushes and incorrect assumptions about outcomes.

How bookmakers set totals and what market efficiency means when you bet the under

Bookmakers set totals to attract balanced action and to reflect public information and market sentiment as much as any single projection. The posted number is a market product designed to split bets and manage liability, not a pure point estimate of expected combined scoring Sports Betting 101.

Lines move because bettors, sharps, and algorithms respond to new information such as injuries, weather, and money flow. When action concentrates on one side, the market maker adjusts the total to encourage the other side and limit exposure. Understanding that dynamic helps explain short-term line moves that are not always changes to the underlying expectation.

All totals include a margin for the operator, commonly called the vig, which changes the required edge you need to be profitable over time. Because markets are generally efficient, consistent gains usually require identifying genuinely mispriced totals by comparing disciplined projections against the market rather than following blanket heuristics about always betting the under.

How to read American odds and settlement differences when you bet the under

American odds show how stake and payout relate: a negative number tells you how much to risk to win 100, while a positive number shows the profit on a 100 stake. Converting odds to implied probability is essential when you compare the market to your projection Sports Betting 101.

Practice totals projections in a structured challenge

Follow the step-by-step workflow below to turn your projection and market checks into a disciplined bet decision.

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For example, -110 means you must risk 110 to win 100; +110 means a 100 stake returns 110 in profit. When you convert American odds into implied probability, remember to adjust for the vig so you compare your true expected probability with the market-implied chance of the under.

Settlement rules affect the effective probability of finishing below a posted total. If a market includes overtime, the probability of an over increases compared with a regulation-only market because overtime adds scoring opportunity. Always confirm whether the market resolves with extra time before relying on your baseline projection Sportsbook House Rules. For a different DraftKings reference see their general rules general rules.

Key game factors that make the under more likely

Pace and tempo are primary drivers of combined scoring. Slower offensive pace, fewer plays per game, and longer possessions reduce scoring opportunities, and those effects compound when both teams play at a similar, low-tempo rate Sports Betting 101.

Weather and field conditions matter especially for outdoor football. Wind, heavy rain, or an icy surface limits passing and kicking efficiency, which tends to suppress scoring volume. Likewise, injuries to key offensive players or absences that force backup lineups can materially reduce expected scoring for a team, and that should lower your projected combined total.

Also factor in league and game-specific procedures. Overtime rules in the NFL and NBA extend playing time and therefore scoring opportunities, so games with a higher chance of extra time need adjusted projections if the market includes overtime in settlement NFL Overtime Rules.

A step-by-step workflow to bet the under

Step 1, read the market and rules: note the posted total, confirm whether overtime or extra time is included, and scan the sportsbook help notes for any market exceptions. This pre-bet check prevents settlement surprises and ensures your model and your ticket use the same assumptions Sportsbook House Rules. You can also compare rules across operators such as William Hill.

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Step 2, build a projection: start with pace-adjusted baseline scoring, then adjust for recent form, opponent strength, injuries, and external factors such as weather. Document your assumptions and variance estimate so you can test and refine them after the game.

Step 3, compare and decide: convert the posted odds into an implied probability including the vig and compare it with the chance your projection assigns to the under. Only place a wager when your estimated probability materially exceeds the market-implied probability after adjusting for the vig and your staking plan Sports Betting 101. For additional reading see the Funded Plays blog post.

Keep a clear record: record the posted total, your projection, pre-bet notes, the stake size, and the settlement result. Regularly review these records to identify calibration issues or systematic biases in your approach.

Sizing bets: using the Kelly criterion and practical staking for totals

The Kelly criterion links stake size to your estimated edge and bankroll and is a foundational framework for disciplined staking, though it predates modern sports markets and must be used with care A New Interpretation of Information Rate.

Full Kelly often recommends stakes that produce high volatility. Many bettors use fractional Kelly, for example one half or one quarter Kelly, to limit variance while keeping stake size proportional to estimated edge. This reduces drawdown risk if your edge estimates are noisy.

Practical cautions: Kelly depends on accurate edge estimates. If your projection systematically overstates your advantage, Kelly will magnify losses. Use conservative edge inputs, cap fractional Kelly stakes, and consider fixed-percentage rules if your model is not yet validated Sports Betting 101.

Common mistakes bettors make when they bet the under

Confirmation bias and recency bias are common cognitive errors. These biases cause bettors to overweight recent low-scoring games or selectively look for evidence that supports a pre-existing under view rather than testing it against disconfirming data Sports Betting 101.

How should I approach betting the under in different sports?

Approach each market by confirming settlement rules, building a pace and context-adjusted projection, comparing it to the vig-adjusted market probability, and sizing stakes with a disciplined rule. Adjust for sport-specific overtime and stoppage differences.

Operational mistakes include failing to check the sportsbook settlement rules and ignoring the vig in probability comparisons. Both lead to misleading conclusions about whether a given market is mispriced. Treat the pre-bet checklist as mandatory to avoid those errors.

A final common error is relying on blanket rules such as always betting the under. Totals pricing adjusts for many factors, so long-term success generally comes from identifying occasional edges and backing them with disciplined staking and record keeping rather than untested heuristics Sports Betting 101.

Sport-specific notes: NFL, NBA, and soccer considerations when you bet the under

NFL and NBA overtime procedures add playing time relative to regulation and therefore additional scoring opportunity. If a totals market includes overtime, that increases the expected combined score compared with a regulation-only market and should change how you treat the posted number NFL Overtime Rules.

The NBA rule book describes clock and overtime procedures that also expand scoring opportunity beyond regulation, and these league-level rules help explain cross-sport differences in how totals behave over a season Official NBA Rule Book.

Soccer totals markets most commonly settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Some markets explicitly include extra time and penalties, while others do not, so read the market note carefully when analyzing under probability in a match Sportsbook Rules.

Tools, data sources, and simple models to support under bets

Useful data sources include play-by-play logs, pace and possession metrics, recent scoring trends, weather and stadium reports, and injury feeds. These inputs form the basis for a practical projection that balances simplicity with relevance Sports Betting 101. See more on the Funded Plays blog.

Simple starting models are effective: a pace-adjusted average combined with opponent adjustments and a variance estimate often outperforms ad-hoc judgments. Validate any model against historical totals and track calibration so you know whether your projected probabilities align with realized outcomes.

For many bettors, a lightweight toolset is enough: a spreadsheet that converts odds to implied probabilities, a simple pace adjustment, and a short checklist for settlement and external factors will handle most pre-bet workflows without heavy infrastructure.

Practical scenario walkthroughs: applying the workflow to real game situations

Low-pace NFL game example: collect season-long pace numbers for both teams, adjust for recent injuries that affect passing, check weather forecasts for potential wind or rain, and confirm the sportsbook settles the market including or excluding overtime. Use these inputs to create a documented projection and variance estimate, then compare that projection to the posted total and implied probability using your staking rule.

Minimal 2D vector Funded Plays dashboard showing a pace adjusted totals projection with stacked progress bars and a settlement checks checklist highlight to bet the under

Wind-affected outdoor totals example: when strong crosswind is forecast, reduce expected passing efficiency and field-goal success, lower the projection accordingly, and re-evaluate whether the market has already priced the effect. If the market has not adjusted, the under may show value; if it has, restraint is the right response.

No scenario is foolproof. The useful habit is documenting assumptions, recording outcomes, and running post-game reviews to refine how you translate game facts into projection adjustments over time.

Comparing your projection to the market and identifying mispriced totals

Convert American odds to implied probability, then adjust both sides for the vig to get the market-implied probability that the under will occur. This gives you a clean comparison point for your projection and is the first numerical filter in a disciplined decision process Sports Betting 101.

Decide a practical threshold for action: require your projected probability to exceed the market-implied probability by a margin that justifies staking costs and variance. Track hit rate and ROI against this threshold to detect calibration drift and avoid quietly accepting an overconfident model.

Before you place the bet: final checks and responsible participation

Final pre-bet checklist: confirm settlement rules, reconfirm injuries and weather, re-check odds and any last-minute market movement, and size the stake according to your staking plan. This short list helps prevent simple but costly mistakes Sportsbook House Rules.

Operator rules and league procedures can change, so make a habit of re-checking the current house rules before you bet. Treat totals wagering as a disciplined skill-based activity and avoid implying guaranteed returns. Responsible participation and clear expectations will help you assess long-term results.

Checklist and next steps for readers who want to bet the under

Quick takeaway checklist: confirm settlement rules, build a documented projection, convert odds to vig-adjusted implied probability, require a clear edge before betting, size stakes with a disciplined rule such as fractional Kelly, and record every wager for later review Sportsbook House Rules.

How to iterate and improve: start small, review post-game calibration, refine variance estimates, and prefer gradual increases in stake only after confirming model stability. Treat this as an ongoing learning process rather than a shortcut to guaranteed results. Visit Funded Plays for more.

Does overtime count for totals bets?

It depends on the market and operator. Many football and basketball totals include overtime, while most soccer totals settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Always check the sportsbook house rules before betting.

How do I convert American odds to implied probability?

Convert the odds to implied probability using standard formulas, then adjust for the vig so your projection compares to the market-implied chance before deciding.

Should I use Kelly to size totals bets?

Kelly is a disciplined framework linking stake to estimated edge, but many bettors use fractional Kelly to limit volatility and reduce the impact of estimation errors.

Betting totals is a skill: it combines careful rule checks, thoughtful projection work, and disciplined stake sizing. Keep records, review outcomes, and refine your process. Treat every wager as a learning opportunity rather than a guaranteed outcome.