This article explains what a 147 in snooker means under current rules and how analysts and informed fans reason about its odds. It combines rulebook clarity with a practical estimation framework that you can apply to players and events. We avoid inventing per-frame probabilities and instead show how to convert a symbolic per-frame chance into cumulative match and tournament probabilities using official records and curated databases for calibration.

A 147 is the official maximum under WPBSA rules, compiled by 15 reds with 15 blacks then all six colours.

Analysts use a simple complementary formula to turn a per-frame chance into a match or tournament probability.

Official WST lists and cueing databases are the primary sources for player-level and trend analysis.

What exactly is a 147 in snooker and how is it defined?

A 147 is the standard competitive maximum break in modern snooker, compiled by potting 15 reds each followed by a black, and then the six colours in sequence, all without fouls. The WPBSA rulebook sets this definition and explains the scoring sequence that makes a 147 official in competition, under the current rules WPBSA rulebook. The phrase best snooker betting sites appears here because many readers arrive via search terms looking for probability context rather than betting tips.

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Keep reading for a step by step estimation framework that turns a per-frame probability into a practical match or tournament chance.

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The rulebook also describes an unusual free-ball case that can produce a theoretical 155, when a free ball is awarded before the first red and the sequence allows an extra colour to be treated as an extra red, which is exceptional in competitive records. The WPBSA text clarifies that only breaks compiled under the published rules are counted as official maximums, and that recognition in event records follows those rules WPBSA rulebook.

How analysts frame the probability question: per-frame versus tournament chance

Per-frame probability versus cumulative-event probability, best snooker betting sites

When analysts talk about the odds of a 147 they usually start by defining a per-frame probability, called p, that a player compiles a maximum in any single frame where they have an uninterrupted break-building opportunity. That single-letter notation keeps the math readable and lets you reuse a single formula to scale from frames to matches and tournaments without inventing additional assumptions.

One simple and widely used conversion is the complementary probability formula, which gives the chance of at least one maximum in N independent frames as 1 - (1 - p)^N. This expression is algebraically straightforward and transparent, and it is the basis for many back-of-envelope conversions from a per-frame rate to a match or tournament chance. Databases that record breaks and frame counts let analysts test how reasonable a given p is by comparing observed frequencies to the formula's predictions using historical frames and breaks data CueTracker database.

Convert a per-frame probability into a tournament chance using the complementary formula

Use Frames as integer and Per-frame p as decimal

It is important to state the model limits. The complementary formula assumes independence between frames and a stationary p, which is rarely exact in practice. Frames vary by context, table conditions, and opponent tactics, and a player may have widely different p when facing a safety-first opponent compared to an open frame. Nevertheless, the formula provides a baseline that is easy to explain and test against observed counts from official lists and curated records World Snooker Tour official list.

Key factors that materially change the odds of a 147

Player skill and proven break-building ability are the single largest determinants of a conditional per-frame probability. Elite break-builders who routinely make centuries and post large breaks create many of the raw opportunities that can turn into a 147, because they both clear clusters of reds and control positional play to continue a run. Databases of big breaks help show which players regularly produce the base-tier opportunities that can evolve into maximums CueTracker database.

Event format and frame count change the cumulative chance even when the per-frame p is unchanged. A long best-of-35 match contains many more frames to accumulate chance than a short, single-frame shootout, so the chance of seeing at least one 147 in the longer match rises purely from additional opportunity. Table speed, cloth condition, and venue familiarity also influence how often players can string together long runs, because these variables affect positional play and the likelihood of balls breaking favourably during a clearance World Snooker Tour official list.

How to judge a player's real chance: decision criteria and evidence sources

When you want to assess a specific player's realistic chance of a 147, use a short checklist of statistics rather than a single headline number. Key items to check are century frequency (how often they score 100 or more per frame), their distribution of highest breaks, how often they build 120-plus breaks, and their recent form in the same format and venue. Those metrics together describe both the frequency of opportunity and the demonstrated ability to convert long runs into very high breaks CueTracker database.

Combining data sources responsibly means reading official lists and curated databases together. The World Snooker Tour registry lists officially recognised maximums, which is the primary source for confirmed competitive 147s, while cueing databases provide per-player and per-season context that helps estimate p for a specific player or cohort. Use counts combined with the number of frames or matches played to normalise raw totals and avoid small-sample exaggeration World Snooker Tour official list.

Typical errors and misconceptions when people ask "what are the odds"

A common mistake is to confuse rarity with impossibility. Maximum breaks are rare relative to ordinary frames, but the official count has continued to grow, and that accumulation does not mean the event has become common in any single frame. Readers should understand that a rising total of recognised maximums reflects more play, more tournaments, and continued occurrences among elite players, rather than a shift that makes 147s frequent in any given frame World Snooker Tour official list.

Close up action shot of a snooker player preparing a long break focusing on cue tip and racked balls on a minimalist navy background for best snooker betting sites

Another error is to present a tournament-level frequency as if it were a per-frame probability, without clarifying the conditioning. Saying that a tournament saw one 147 in a year does not give p directly, because you need the total frame count and the distribution of opportunities to convert that observation into a per-frame estimate. Also avoid treating a single recent 147 by a player as proof they are now likely to repeat the feat soon, because small-sample variance and confirmation bias can mislead interpretation CueTracker database.

Practical examples and scenario walk-throughs

Official registers and recent matches show that maximums continue to appear in major events. For example, Zhang Anda compiled a 147 at the 2024 UK Championship, which is one of the documented competitive maximums listed by the tour WST report on Zhang Anda.

Jak Jones also made a 147 at the 2025 Championship League, a recorded instance that added to the running total of official maximums and illustrates how multiple events in a season can contribute to the official count WST report on Jak Jones.

To illustrate the role of individual skill and pace, note that Ronnie O'Sullivan holds the fastest recognised competitive 147 on record, completed in 5 minutes 8 seconds. That record highlights the level of break-building fluency elite players can achieve, while not implying any particular frequency of occurrence across players or seasons Guinness World Records.

Minimalist 2D vector scoreboard and timeline visualising accumulation of recognised 147 snooker maximums in Funded Plays color palette for best snooker betting sites

In an applied scenario you can use the complementary formula from earlier to convert a symbolic per-frame p into a tournament chance. Leave p as a variable in the formula and vary N for the number of frames in the match or tournament you care about; this keeps the exercise transparent and avoids asserting an empirical p that is not authorised by official sources.

Practically, use official lists to set priors and cueing databases to normalise by frames played. Compare a player's count of big breaks to their frame volume before translating counts into an estimated p. This combination reduces the chance of misreading a single headline performance as a sustained elevated probability for further maximums CueTracker database.

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Trends, what the official lists show, and how the frequency has changed

The World Snooker Tour register records more than 210 officially recognised maximum breaks by early 2025, reflecting continued additions through the 2024 to 2025 season and showing how official counts accumulate as play continues World Snooker Tour official list.

What are the realistic odds that a specific player will make a 147 in a match or tournament?

There is no single authoritative per-frame probability; estimate a player's chance by combining a symbolic per-frame p with the complementary formula 1 - (1 - p)^N, and calibrate p using official lists and curated databases while accounting for format, frames, and match context.

Curated databases like CueTracker complement the WST register by offering player-level and season-level breakdowns that analysts use to test hypotheses about who makes maximums and when. Those paired sources let you explore trends with more nuance than raw annual counts alone CueTracker database.

Be cautious drawing strong trend conclusions from short windows. Increases in official totals can result from a calendar with more televised events, higher century rates among top players, or simply a few concentrated years with multiple recognised maximums. Trend interpretation requires controlling for frames played, event formats, and player population before asserting a directional change in per-frame probability.

Key takeaways and how to use this information responsibly

Rule first, probability second. A 147 is defined by the WPBSA as the standard maximum compiled by 15 reds with 15 blacks followed by the six colours, and a theoretical 155 is possible only under an exceptional free-ball condition. For current definitions consult the official rulebook for authoritative context WPBSA rulebook and the WPBSA history list of 147s 147 Breaks.

Use the complementary formula 1 - (1 - p)^N to convert per-frame p into match or tournament chance, consult the World Snooker Tour register for confirmed maximums, and use curated databases for player-level incidence and normalisation by frames played to avoid small-sample bias World Snooker Tour official list.

Can a 147 ever be higher than 147?

Yes. A theoretical 155 is possible in the rare free-ball scenario, but the standard competitive maximum under WPBSA rules is 147.

Does the World Snooker Tour keep an official count of 147s?

Yes, the World Snooker Tour maintains an official register of recognised maximums and adds confirmed instances to that list.

Can I estimate a player's chance of a 147 from their century rate?

Century frequency is a useful input, but it should be normalised by frames played and combined with big-break patterns to avoid misleading conclusions.

Use the WPBSA rulebook and World Snooker Tour register as your primary references for definitions and confirmed instances, and consult curated databases for player-level context. Treat any per-frame p as an estimate, not an authoritative fact, and avoid overinterpreting single historical maximums.